The fact that the Ukrainian power grid was able to survive the winter despite constant rocket attacks by the Russians is considered a small energy miracle in Ukraine. Even now, with temperatures rising, the bombings continue. “The next winter is closer than you think,” says an expert.
Electricity supply remains a problem for Ukraine, but at least it survived the winter. After a few weeks between late February and early March, Russia seemed to have given up its attacks on Ukraine’s energy supplies, another mass fire took place on March 9 – one of the largest ever, with a total of 81 rockets. Previously, Ukraine had endured 25 days with almost no power outages – something that seemed impossible as recently as December, when there were at best planned power outages to anticipate. Immediately after attacks like the one on March 9th, entire large cities were left without electricity, water and heating for several days.
Of course, the new attack also had consequences for the Ukrainian energy supply. The situation is still difficult in the eastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv, which initially had to do without electricity. Sporadic power shortages can occur in regions such as Kiev, Odessa and Zhytomyr. Heaters also failed in Kiev. But even though Russia deployed more modern missiles than usual, which cannot be intercepted by Ukrainian anti-aircraft defenses, the attack’s fallout is more manageable than expected.
In view of the beginning of spring and the rising temperatures, it is now almost impossible that the Ukrainian power supply will collapse in the near future. At least this winter the power system was able to survive. Even Ukrainian energy experts were all the more surprised that the Russians did not change their tactics as expected and stuck to attacks on thermal power plants or substations. “I also thought they would have left it alone,” says Andrian Prokip, director of the energy program at the Ukrainian Future Institute in Kiev. “After the war broke out, they gave up systematic attacks on television towers, which were not at all effective. So I was quite surprised on the night of March 9 that they were moving on.”
How the miracle was possible
The fact that the Ukrainian power grid was able to survive the winter despite constant attacks is considered a small energy miracle in Ukraine. How was that possible? “First of all: Our electricity consumption is not what it was two years ago. Because millions have left the country, many companies are at a standstill. This is the rare case in which something like this brings an advantage,” explains Prokip. “Basically, there are three reasons: a significant improvement in air defense compared to the first attacks thanks to western deliveries, the fairly warm winter and the very well thought-out work of the energy operators. They repeatedly switched off parts of the system in good time to avoid greater damage to avoid. That played a huge role.” According to Prokip, the employees of the energy companies should also be commended for risking their lives under Russian fire. “In almost every attack there were dead energy operator employees.”
In addition, a foundation was laid in December and January: replacement lines that had not been used for years were extensively renewed and equipped with more powerful transformers. As a result, their throughput capacity has been significantly increased, which gives energy operators more time to repair the main lines without creating new power deficits in the system. Deep in winter, the start of electricity imports from the EU also played a role in relieving the situation: although EU electricity is significantly more expensive, many companies have deliberately opted for it in order to be able to function normally. “Electricity import is almost a non-factor now, but it was important, if not overly important,” says Prokip, who is also a senior associate at the Kennan Institute.
“The next winter is closer than you think”
The damage to Ukraine’s energy infrastructure remains enormous – and experts like Andrian Prokip are aware that Ukraine’s energy miracle was not least due to the fact that Ukrainian companies are producing less and less, also because of the difficult economic situation alone. In addition, current improvisation often leads to stress, which can then also lead to industrial accidents. This was recently the case in Odessa, which, apart from the regions close to the front next to Kiev, suffered the most from the power crisis.
But the big question remains, what is the point of continuing attacks on energy infrastructure for Russia if Ukraine has already made it through the winter? “The Russian game is long. Next winter is also closer than you think. They want to gradually destroy all the important infrastructure so that at some point it will no longer be possible to generate energy,” says military analyst Stanislav Besuschko, who is currently in the US army serves. Prokip points out that increased use of air conditioning can also lead to certain overloads and power shortages in summer – but these would not really be significant.
Russia seems to have reconnaissance problems
One thing is clear: it was a serious blow for the Ukrainian economy that it was unable to export electricity to the EU because of the Russian attacks. The government in Kiev had hoped for this in order to make up for some deficits in the budget. That Ukraine and its partners need to spend millions on upgrading energy infrastructure rather than on weapons is also evident. And the fact that Ukraine has to distribute its anti-aircraft systems across the country instead of deploying them at the front is part of the strategy behind the Russian warfare – as is the exhaustion of the reserves of Ukrainian anti-aircraft defenses, which like many other things is not yet in sight. Still, the question is whether it’s effective to use missiles against energy objects rather than other targets. With regard to military objects, however, Russia seems to have reconnaissance problems.
Because Russia obviously attaches great importance to attacking factories that repair Ukrainian military technology or the Ukrainian railway that transports weapons and soldiers. Of course, these attacks make both tasks more difficult for Ukraine, but the effect produced is small. “Technology repair is of course the number one priority for Ukraine. And so many generators were brought into the country in the winter. It’s not an unsolvable problem even in the worst case, especially since the import of gasoline from the EU works smoothly,” comments Andrian Prokip. The Ukrainian railways, on the other hand, are sufficiently supplied with diesel locomotives. So far there has been no indication that their paralysis would be realistic.