Canberra and Tokyo both feel pressured militarily by China. They are therefore looking for ways to tie the United States more firmly to them as their most important security partner.
An image that should be seen more frequently in northern Australia in the future – an American B-52 bomber on approach.
Since 1985, the US and Australian secretaries of state and defense have met almost annually for consultation. Last week, Penny Wong and Richard Marles traveled to Washington to visit Antony Blinken and Lloyd Austin. Ausmin, as the meeting is called, is the most important platform of the Australian-American alliance, which was formed in 1951.
Even if Ausmin deals with the whole range of bilateral relations, the military aspect usually receives the greatest attention. In the future, more American troops will be temporarily present in Australia. The military speak of “rotational presence” – the troops are not permanently stationed in Australia, but are replaced by other units after a few months. They use Australian military bases.
So far, it has mainly been marines who have practiced jungle combat in Australia’s tropical north. The vast, empty north of the country also offers the US Air Force an ideal field for maneuvers. In the future, units of the US Army and US Navy will also be increasingly present Down Under.
American long-range bombers in northern Australia
Already in October reported the Australian broadcaster ABC, that the Australian air force base RAAF Tindal should be expanded so that it could accommodate six American B-52 bombers. B-52s can carry nuclear weapons and have a range of 14,000 kilometers. Taiwan or the South China Sea – two potential trouble spots – are less than 5,000 kilometers from Tindal.
The problem for the US is that its main bases in the western Pacific – in Japan, South Korea and Guam – are within range of Chinese short- and medium-range missiles. They have to fear that in the event of war, the People’s Liberation Army would try to prevent these bases from being eliminated.
Tindal, on the other hand, is so far away from China that it is considered relatively safe. A “rotational presence” has the additional advantage that the enemy is never sure whether the bombers are really there or not.
“The government and the opposition agree that Australia needs to rely on the US militarily,” said Alex Bristow, deputy director of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, a Canberra-based think tank close to the Defense Department. That’s why Canberra is strengthening its alliance with Washington.
Bristow points out that American bombers have been in Australia for years. This presence is now being expanded. “The Australian armed forces lack the means to strike back over long distances,” says Bristow, “there are a number of scenarios in which Australia is dependent on the United States.”
Australia doubles stakes to US, Japan diversifies
In addition, Australia is increasingly relying on Japan. And with Washington’s consent. In the joint statement after the Ausmin meeting states that trilateral cooperation in the field of defense should be expanded. On Friday, Wong and Marles flew directly from Washington to Tokyo to visit their counterparts Yoshimasa Hayashi and Yasukazu Hamada for the annual 2+2 meeting.
The four ministers announced that Japanese fighter jets should come to Australia more and for longer, and that Australian jets will come to Japan for the first time. This makes the security agreement that the two countries signed at the beginning of the year more concrete. The Reciprocal Access Agreement makes such cooperation possible in the first place. For Japan, it is the first time that it has such close military cooperation with a country other than the United States.
Washington has long wanted its alliance partners in the Pacific to work more closely together. But now Tokyo and Canberra are themselves driving this closer together, says Bryce Wakefield. “The two share the fear of being abandoned by the United States,” says the director of the Australian Institute of International Affairs in Canberra.
Australia had previously lost its key security partner when the British disappeared as a major power in Asia following the fall of Singapore in World War II. Because Japan has relied so heavily on the United States since the end of the war, fear of loss is even greater there, says Wakefield, who studied in Japan.
However, Wakefield sees differences in how the two countries respond to this fear. Australia doubles its bet on the US. This is reflected in the Aukus agreement that Canberra signed with Washington and London a year ago. The partners want to jointly develop technologies that are crucial for the warfare of the future. Australia is to gain access to American know-how for the construction of nuclear-powered submarines.
The shock of the Trump years runs deep
Japan, on the other hand, is increasingly focusing on diversification, according to the expert. It strengthens bilateral cooperation with Australia and, to a lesser extent, with India and Vietnam. Tokyo has just announced that it wants to develop a sixth-generation fighter jet together with Great Britain and Italy. It is the first time Japan has backed a country other than the United States for a major weapons system.
Under President Joe Biden, the USA is currently presenting itself as a reliable partner who values its allies. But the shock of the Trump years is still deep. And also the fear that such times could come again. The Australians, and especially the Japanese, are concerned with keeping the USA as a great power in the Pacific in the longer term, says Wakefield: “Because first and foremost the USA is a transatlantic power.”
Wakefield interprets the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), in which the central powers Japan and Australia work together with the superpowers USA and India on security issues, in this way: “With the Quad, Tokyo and Canberra are trying to keep Washington in the Pacific over the long term and at the same time ensure that Delhi does not drift in another direction.” If Japan and Australia came closer together bilaterally, they would be better able to achieve these goals, Wakefield said.