It is undoubtedly the busiest day of the week, both on a macro and microeconomic level. Business is picking up, in fact, within the Cac 40 with two publications of annual results, those of Publicis and of Dassault Systems. For advertising, the FactSet consensus expects 2.8 billion in sales in the last quarter, with organic growth of 7.4%, and annual net earnings per share close to 2019. As for the software publisher , double-digit growth will be more difficult to maintain in 2022 without non-recurring factors, such as Medidata or the post-Covid rebound.
We are also awaiting in France the annual data of Linedata Services, Tikehau Capital and Jacques Bogart. Bonduelle presents the sales for its first half of 2021-2022.
BoE, then ECB
Internationally, all eyes will be on Amazon, the last Gafam to publish its quarterly. It will be after the close of Wall Street. To follow also the accounts of two components of the Dow Jones, Honeywell and Merck & Coand announcements ofEli Lilly and of Ford in the United States, and more broadly, nokia, Shell, Swisscom, nintendo and ING.
On the economic level, the big meeting of the day is set for the beginning of the afternoon, with the monetary policy decision of the European Central Bank, at 1.45 p.m., followed, at 2.30 p.m., by the press conference of its President. Christine Lagarde. The financial year promises to be perilous, as inflation peaked at record levels of 5.1% over one year in January (+2.3% excluding food and energy). Analyst consensus was for 4.4% and 1.9% respectively. At 1 p.m., the Bank of England will also have delivered its monetary verdict.
Many statistics in the United States
” The BoE has already started its rate hike cycle, the Fed will do so shortly, but the ECB remains patient. Why ? This is due less to inflation differentials between zones (5.4% in the United Kingdom in December, 7% in the United States, 5% in the euro zone) than to its root causes, explained earlier this week the firm Oddo BHF (…) Last month, the ECB outlined its intentions for 2022: stopping the PEPP in March; temporarily strengthen the APP until at least the end of 2022; do not raise rates. For the office, this compromise is not intended to change this time, but Christine Lagarde’s analysis of the surge in inflation in January is eagerly awaited by the market. As for the BoE, economists overwhelmingly expect a further 25 basis point hike in key rates.
Many statistics are also included in the program. We are waiting around the world for the figures Final Services PMIs for the month of January, and, in the United States, the weekly jobless claimsthe first estimate of productivity gains of the fourth quarter, the index ISM of Service Industry Purchasing Managers of the month of January, the durable goods orders and the industry orders of December.