Wednesday 20th October 2021
Belarus and the smugglers
Migration via Poland: Hundreds of refugees every day
Thousands of people from Iraq, Syria and other crisis areas have come to Germany illegally via Belarus and Poland since the summer. Now Interior Minister Horst Seehofer wants to discuss countermeasures in the federal cabinet. Simple solutions are not in sight. Because the background to the new escape route is a complicated geopolitical conflict. The European Union had imposed punitive measures against Belarus because ruler Alexander Lukashenko forced a plane to change route in the spring and took a blogger out of the plane. In return, Lukashenko announced that he would no longer stop migrants en route to the EU. In fact, Lukashenko is now operating as the “head of a state smuggling ring,” said Federal Foreign Minister Heiko Maas this week.
How many unauthorized people come via the Belarus route?
The Federal Police registered more than 5,000 unauthorized people on the Belarus route this year. By the end of July, only 26 people came to Germany illegally via Belarus and Poland. In August there were already 474, in September, according to the latest information from the Federal Police, 1903. By October 17, another 3,000 unauthorized persons had entered the German-Polish border, most of them probably also via the Belarus route.
So the curve went up steeply at first. The latest figures from Brandenburg – where most of the people arrive – could point to a flattening: Last weekend 288 people were picked up in the border area, a week earlier 392. Whether this is a trend remains open.
What is the situation on Poland’s border with Belarus?
The fact is that Poland, Latvia and Lithuania are trying to close the EU’s external border with Belarus. The federal states are building border fences, Poland is also planning permanent fortifications. The border guards there have registered around 10,000 attempts at illegal crossing at the border with Belarus since the beginning of October alone – after 6,000 in September. Many migrants are turned away at the border, which is legal under international law.
On the other hand, so-called push-backs are illegal – when people have already reached EU territory and actually have the right to apply for asylum. Push-backs are also held up to the Polish authorities. Migrants reported to the Polish press that after returning to Belarus they were beaten by uniformed men there and driven back to Poland. The exact situation is unclear because Poland has declared a state of emergency in the border area. In any case, despite everything, thousands make it across the EU’s external borders and Poland to Germany.
Is the situation comparable to 2015 or 2016?
The numbers are much lower than they were then. For 2015, the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees (Bamf) recorded 476,649 initial and follow-up applications for asylum. In 2016 there were 722,370 initial applications alone. In 2021, the Bamf reported 100,278 initial applications by the end of September. However, that was 35.2 percent more than at the same time last year. This is partly explained by the fact that fewer people came in 2020 because of Corona. But there is also an increase on the Belarus route and other routes. Union faction leader Ralph Brinkhaus said he feared “that something could develop”. In 2015, “leading indicators” were not given enough attention. That should not be repeated. Politicians are quietly getting nervous and are trying to take countermeasures – nationally, internationally and in the EU.
What is Seehofer planning?
Federal Interior Minister Seehofer has already turned to his Polish counterpart Mariusz Kaminski. The CSU politician suggested joint patrols by German and Polish border guards, mainly on the Polish side. This is a measure “below the threshold of a temporary reintroduction of internal border controls”. That sounds a bit like a subliminal threat, because it is precisely these border controls that are not actually intended in the Schengen area that are being discussed in Germany. However, they would have practical disadvantages for both sides, such as traffic jams and obstructions in the movement of goods, last seen in the Corona crisis.
Can the numbers be reduced like this?
Unauthorized entry of asylum seekers to Germany would probably not prevent German-Polish patrols, but at most reduce them. It would not be comprehensive surveillance – but that would also be difficult with stationary border controls. The joint patrols could help that more refugees are registered in Poland. Then Poland would also be responsible for the asylum procedure in most cases. According to one thought, that could be daunting. Because those who make their way via Belarus usually do not want to stay in Poland, but rather to Germany or other Western European countries.
What is the EU doing to cut the route?
Maas and the other EU foreign ministers discussed new punitive measures at the beginning of the week. “We are no longer ready to see that there are also companies such as airlines that also earn money with it,” said Maas about the Belarus route. The EU Commission is also negotiating with countries from which the migrants come or who are on their route. According to her own statements, she was successful in Iraq: There are no more flights from Baghdad to Minsk, said Migration Commissioner Ylva Johansson at the beginning of October. The EU states agree to protect their external borders more effectively. For years, however, they have not found a common line for the reception and distribution of migrants and asylum seekers.
What is Lukashenko up to?
The ruler denies any responsibility. One thing is clear: Belarus allows citizens from 76 countries to enter without a visa or at least without major restrictions. There are no official statistics on how many people use it. But there are also signs of difficulties for Lukashenko because of the large number of immigrants who are temporarily or completely stuck in Belarus. “There are already enough migrants in Minsk who are constantly sitting in shopping centers or courtyards,” said expert Yegor Lebedok to the news portal zerkalo.io and even warned: “The risk of rioting is growing.”
In the border area with Poland, 15,000 people are said to be waiting. Now it is speculated that Lukashenko himself wants to limit the number of people entering the country – especially with a view to the approaching winter. The tour operator Anex Tour announced that in future people from Afghanistan, Egypt, Iran, Yemen, Nigeria, Pakistan and Syria will only be able to fly to Belarus with a valid visa. Previously, it was possible to obtain a visa upon arrival at the Minsk airport.