Berlin election creates tension: Each party has something to lose

State elections are often primarily a matter for the federal states, but this Sunday moves all federal parties: the SPD could lose the Red City Hall after two decades. The CDU is threatened with a bittersweet election victory, the other parties have one thing above all – to fear. And then there is the issue of voter turnout.

Today’s Sunday is a novelty in the history of German democracy. For the first time, a state election has to be repeated due to irregularities. And above all this is the uncertainty of a procedure before the Federal Constitutional Court as to whether the court order to repeat the election was legal. Despite this uncertainty, the people of Berlin are now to re-elect the House of Representatives – i.e. the parliament of the city-state – and the district assemblies for the three and a half year remainder of the legislative period that has begun. The significance of this election goes far beyond the capital. All parties represented in the Bundestag have a lot to lose – and democracy is also threatened with real damage.

Will the SPD lose the Red City Hall?

Klaus Wowereit, Michael Müller, Franziska Giffey: The SPD has been the governing mayor for 21 years. After Müller acted increasingly unsuccessfully, the former Neukölln district mayor and Federal Minister for Family Affairs Giffey should turn the tide for the Social Democrats. With success: Despite her doctor affair in the neck, the 44-year-old was able to prevail in the election on September 26, 2021. She continued the coalition with the Greens and the Left Party, which she did not like, but the newly elected Senate has since attracted the attention of Berliners primarily because of its disagreement, while the reforms that have actually been initiated have not yet had any effect in the short period of government.

Shortly before election day, the SPD is sometimes just, sometimes far behind the CDU in polls. Giffey could continue her government if the gap to the Christian Democrats is not too great or if the SPD still wins. In the latter case, she could possibly also create new alliances with the CDU and/or FDP. The federal SPD should almost not care how Giffey does it in the end. The main thing is that the SPD does not lose one of the most prestigious state chief posts. It would be a bad start to the new election year.

The CDU hopes for the sensation

Strong in the area, weak in the cities: Of the 15 largest cities in Germany, the Union governs only four, none of which are a metropolis. Because the Union is aware of this weakness, its parliamentary group had a metropolitan representative during the penultimate legislative period: the then MP Kai Wegner. Now the man from the West Berlin outskirts of Spandau could complete his mission at the time and become mayor of Berlin in the third attempt – the first CDU member since Eberhard Diepgen, during whose reign the momentous Berlin banking scandal fell.

The horror scenario of the Christian Democrats: your party is finally in first place and the red-green-red government alliance is simply continuing as before. Neither Giffey nor her party are keen on becoming a junior partner of the CDU. And both sides have already rejected a black-green alliance. They weren’t definitive, but in transport policy in particular the contradictions can hardly be overcome. CDU leader Friedrich Merz is also keeping his fingers crossed for Wegner that it would be the third state election victory in his more than one-year tenure as chairman. But without coalition options, the CDU faces a bittersweet election evening.

The end of the green boom

For years, election results for the Greens have only been going in one direction, with exceptions such as in Saarland: upwards. The party has long been an SPD adversary on an equal footing. In the 2021 House of Representatives election, the then largely unknown top candidate Bettina Jarasch was even tied with Giffey and the SPD on the evening of the election. Now the Greens in Berlin could bring in fewer percentages than in the previous election. The dispute over traffic route planning and the threatened halving of the number of public car parking spaces are just as unhelpful as the poll duel between Wegner and Giffey. Anyone who wants to prevent the CDU, and there are quite a few in Berlin, could also tick the Giffey party as a Green voter to be on the safe side.

FDP scratches the next expulsion

The year 2022 was extremely unpleasant for the FDP. In North Rhine-Westphalia and Schleswig-Holstein, the previous election results were halved, in Saarland and Lower Saxony the Liberals even missed out on entering parliament. Each of these elections was followed by new hardening in the federal government, because the FDP struggles with its role in the traffic light.

In the repeat of the House of Representatives elections, polls meanwhile saw the Liberals dangerously close to the 5 percent mark. The values ​​are now stable at around 7 percent. But similar to the Greens, the FDP and its top candidate Sebastian Czaja – the brother of the CDU General Secretary Mario Czaja – could get under the wheels of the duel between the CDU and SPD. The third expulsion from a state parliament in little more than a year would not bode well for the climate in the traffic light coalition.

The dwarfing of the left before the continuation

September 26, 2021 was already a disaster for the Left Party. She only managed to get into the Bundestag with the strength of a parliamentary group – thanks to two of a total of three direct mandates in East Berlin. The left moved into the House of Representatives with a slight loss of 1.5 percentage points. According to the surveys, it could now fall from 14.5 to 11 percent. High inflation, increased energy prices and the housing shortage in Berlin are all classic topics for mobilizing left-wing voters. But their old core clientele in the east of the city is dying away, and the left-wing urban milieu in the city is occupied by the Greens. And if things go badly, there will be no continuation of the red-green-red Senate in Berlin and then the left could also be kicked out of the Bremen state government in the spring. Two out of four remaining government participations fell away. The Left Party’s free fall never ends, albeit slowly.

The AfD is on the spot – at best

Contrary to expectations, the AfD can hardly benefit from the concerns of the citizens about the increased cost of living. After falling from 14.2 to 8 percent in 2021, she can expect a result that is about as high this time. The violent excesses on New Year’s Eve in Berlin in districts with a high proportion of immigrants and the immense challenges of the high influx of refugees into the capital do not contribute to the AfD’s account. In Berlin, as in western Germany, the party is at best treading water. In the eleventh year of its existence, the AfD cannot expect much from the other state elections in Bremen, Hesse and Bavaria. Her focus is therefore primarily on autumn 2024: then new elections will take place in her strongholds in Brandenburg, Saxony and Thuringia.

Democracy is threatened with great damage

“We are replacing parliament, which has had the highest turnout in more than 30 years, with one that has possibly one of the lowest turnout,” said House President Dennis Buchner “Berlin Morning Post”. “This is not a good signal for the city of Berlin,” said the Social Democrat. 55 percent voter turnout isn’t that much either.

The value came about on September 26, 2021, when, parallel to the Berlin elections, the Bundestag and a referendum on the expropriation of housing groups was also voted on. Mobilization was high, especially since three parties, the SPD, CDU and Greens, could hope for the Red City Hall. Now MPs in whose constituencies there were no irregularities at all in 2021 are likely to lose their mandate in favor of a significantly weaker parliament.

For many city dwellers, the redial has not even really arrived and if it does, there is a lot of incomprehension for the 39 million euro undertaking. The high costs are also due to the fact that the repetition is secured twice and three times by more and better paid election workers and more ballot paper printouts. Renewed election glitches must be avoided at all costs, which is why this Berlin election will be the most expensive of all times. But the pictures of long queues in front of the polling stations in 2021 should now be followed by shots of bored waiting poll workers. If so, the damage to citizen participation in decisions about their city would be significant.

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