DFor the past year, Wall Street hasn’t stopped brooding, desperate to see any good news. When suddenly, between All Saints’ Day and November 11, autumn swallows appeared which sent the stock market soaring: 14.3% rise from the low point in October for the S&P 500, which represents the large American companies, and 12.2% for the Nasdaq and its technology stocks.
First news, inflation is over! Or, at least, it’s the beginning of the end in the United States. Year-on-year consumer prices remain high, on the surface, with an annual increase of 7.7% in October. But the trend is now much better with an inflation rate excluding energy and food halved between September and October. The most serious economists breathe: “Another month or two like this and we can relax a bit”tweeted Jason Furman, former economic adviser to Barack Obama.
Of course, it will be a long way to find a price increase limited to 2%, and the Federal Reserve will continue to raise its rates. But remission is approaching. The situation is somewhat comparable to the discovery of the vaccine against Covid-19, announced the day after the election of Joe Biden, which sent Wall Street soaring. But it had taken long months of vaccination campaign, with its procession of deaths, for the pandemic to finally ebb. In the United States, unemployment will increase, as evidenced by the multiplication of layoffs in tech, but the most optimistic, such as the 2008 Nobel Prize in economics Paul Krugman, begin to hope that America will not go through the recession box. “A soft landing seems more and more possible”he tweeted.
Second piece of news, Trumpism is over too. In any case, he no longer pays electorally. The candidates supported by the former president achieved a poor score, notably preventing the taking of the Senate. “It is now confirmed that the American political center has held”rejoiced Larry Summers, the former secretary of the Treasury of Bill Clinton. “There is a good chance that the terrifying anti-democratic fever is breaking. It is now that the country can move forward to create more prosperity and security for all. » For the political future, it is up to the Republican Party to eliminate Donald Trump, a task theoretically possible since there is a replacement candidate, the governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis. The risk, paradoxically, lies on the side of a Democratic ice age: Joe Biden, comforted by his success, obviously wants to run for a second term, which he would begin at the age of 82.
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