Strange crisis. Everyone knew what was brewing, the storm that was coming, but no one let it show. Not on June 13, in Bari, under the sun of Puglia (Italy), during an ostensibly warm exchange between the French president, Emmanuel Macron, and his Algerian counterpart, Abdelmadjid Tebboune, on the sidelines of the G7 summit. Not on this July 14 celebration, in Algiers, on the heights of El-Biar, in the garden of the Villa des Oliviers, the residence of the French ambassador with a breathtaking view of the bay, where the master of the place, Stéphane Romatet, praised in front of a group of guests the“unique proximity” and the “density like no other” of the relationship with Algeria. Flanked by two ministers and several senior Algerian officials, Mr. Romatet added that “the destiny of our two countries is closely linked” and that “we need each other” in the face of the crises (security, climate, migration) affecting the region.
Until the last moment, appearances were therefore saved, effusions preserved, while a French strategic turnaround, imminent and contrary to the interests of Algeria, was known, planned. On July 30, Mr. Macron sent a letter to the King of Morocco, Mohammed VI, solemnly dedicating France’s rallying to the thesis of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara. In the eyes of Paris, the Moroccan autonomy plan dating from 2007 is now considered “only base” of discussion with a view to a political solution in this disputed territory.
Better or worse (depending on your point of view), Mr. Macron added in his letter that the “present and future” of the former Spanish colony – which Rabat took control of in 1975 to the great displeasure of Algiers, a supporter of the Sahrawi independence movement of the Polisario Front – “are part of Moroccan sovereignty”. The pro-Moroccan change of heart is resounding, even if France continues to invoke the resolutions of the United Nations Security Council, which provide for the very theoretical prospect of a self-determination referendum. Until then, the Moroccan autonomy plan was considered in Paris as “a serious and credible basis”but no more. “A base” become “the only basis” : a real qualitative leap.
The French knighthood was immediately applauded in Rabat, where the king had been giving Emmanuel Macron the cold shoulder for three years. The Franco-Moroccan relationship could now return to its fundamentals, that of a historical connivance that had weakened over time, particularly with the disappearance of the Chirac generation. In Algiers, anger erupted. The Quai d’Orsay, which had always hoped to free itself from the dilemma of a “zero-sum game” on the Maghreb – warming up with Morocco without cooling down with Algeria – must resign itself to it. The breakdown in relations between the two North African enemy brothers in the summer of 2021, collateral damage from the end of the ceasefire in Western Sahara in November 2020 and the normalization of ties between Morocco and Israel the following month, makes French attempts at balancing increasingly precarious.
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