In a tense geopolitical context, the macro-economy will try to find a place for itself. There will be no shortage of appointments with the PMI indices of activity in services in China, Japan, the euro zone and their ISM equivalent in the United States.
Monetary policy will also be in the spotlight with the minutes of the last ECB Governing Council meeting and thespeech by Jerome Powell, the head of the American Federal Reserve (Fed), before the Senate as part of the second round of its biannual hearing by Congress.
Downside risk on growth and upside risk on inflation
During the February 3 meeting, Christine Lagarde created a surprise by announcing that a change in monetary policy was undoubtedly imminent. ” Since that meeting, the war in Ukraine has only served to heighten the ECB’s embarrassment: there is a downside risk to growth and an upside risk to inflation. Does the S-word [stagflation] will appear in the minutes? wondered analysts at Oddo BHF earlier this week.
Jerome Powell will have to engage in a difficult exercise before the Senate Banking Committee. The Fed is torn between supporters of tough action and proponents of more moderate management to stem the inflationary spiral without curbing growth, threatened by soaring commodity prices. Either way, his speech shouldn’t differ much from what he delivered to representatives on Wednesday.
Good commercial momentum for Thales
Among other indicators for the day, the market will be watching the traditional weekly jobless claims in the United States (expected down to 225,000 after 232,000), the productivity of the non-agricultural sector in final data for the fourth quarter (expected to grow by 6.7% against 6.6% previously estimated), the cunit cost of labor for the same period (whose rise should be confirmed at 0.3%) and the January factory orders (expected a 0.7% rebound after a 0.4% contraction).
On the corporate front, Thales will unveil its annual accounts. Commercial momentum should have been good at the end of the year, and free cash flow high in 2021 – at least 1.5 billion euros, according to Oddo BHF. CGG, Manitou and Serge FerrariGroup will also reveal their annual results. Internationally, BestBuy, Lufthansa and Universal Music Group (UMG) will present their quarterly.