The ongoing Gaza conflict has heavily impacted President Biden’s foreign policy legacy, overshadowing his administration’s efforts for peace. While Biden’s support for Israel has strained U.S. credibility and raised tensions within the Democratic Party, his approach is contrasted by Trump’s assertions of global disorder. As Biden’s term ends, unresolved issues regarding Iran’s nuclear program and regional stability present significant challenges for the incoming Trump administration, which must navigate complex diplomatic landscapes and security threats.
Impact of the Gaza Conflict on Biden’s Foreign Policy
This assessment has quickly become outdated. Just eight days later, Hamas executed a shocking surprise assault from Gaza on Israel, igniting a conflict that not only ravaged the Palestinian territory but also created chaos across the region. This series of crises has significantly tarnished President Biden’s foreign policy legacy as he approaches the end of his term on January 20. While his administration played a crucial role in brokering a ceasefire aimed at securing the release of Hamas hostages, analysts suggest that Biden’s legacy in the Middle East will likely be defined more by the emergence of conflicts than by their resolutions. This situation leaves a considerable amount of unresolved issues for both former and future President Donald Trump and his new administration.
Biden’s international standing will largely be shaped by his management of the prolonged Gaza war, which aligns with claims from Trump and his Republican allies who describe a ‘world on fire’ during Biden’s presidency. They argue that Biden’s perceived lack of strong resolve has emboldened adversaries, leading to further unrest in the region. Conversely, Biden’s supporters contend that he confronted a complex set of challenges in the Middle East that were largely beyond his control and that he navigated them adeptly, particularly in weakening Iran and its allies while attempting to minimize civilian casualties in Gaza and Lebanon.
Challenges Ahead for Trump’s Administration
However, Biden’s steadfast support for Israel, particularly in its response to Hamas, which resulted in significant civilian casualties in Gaza, has heavily impacted the U.S.’s global credibility. This has also caused rifts within the Democratic Party, contributing to Vice President Kamala Harris’s defeat to Trump in the recent elections. Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East advisor, noted, ‘The upside is that Joe Biden has stood up for Israel as a reliable ally; the downside is that he failed to rein in Prime Minister Netanyahu in Gaza, which severely damaged the reputation of the United States.’
The ceasefire initiative for Gaza, negotiated in the closing days of Biden’s presidency after extensive discussions, was built on proposals put forth in mid-2024 and required relentless efforts alongside Qatari and Egyptian mediators. However, regional stakeholders perceive the last-minute diplomatic success as primarily influenced by Trump’s warnings of severe consequences if hostages were not released prior to his inauguration. Trump’s newly appointed Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, collaborated with Biden’s chief negotiator, Brett McGurk, providing momentum to the negotiations. An Israeli official indicated that Witkoff’s involvement pressured Netanyahu to swiftly accept the deal.
As Secretary of State Antony Blinken laid out a framework for post-war Gaza, it will be the responsibility of the Trump administration to ensure the full execution of the ceasefire plan and to determine its future role in the region. In the final stretch of his presidency, Biden has been acknowledged for forming a coalition that shielded Israel from Iranian missile threats and for endorsing Israeli retaliatory actions against Iran’s defenses.
Despite calls for U.S. restraint, Israel continued to engage Hezbollah militants aggressively, which many believe led to the Iran-backed group’s acceptance of a U.S.-brokered ceasefire. Additionally, the Biden administration faced unexpected challenges, including a rapid uprising that ousted Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad, a significant ally for Iran, compelling Biden to seek cooperation from new Islamist leaders while preventing the resurgence of the Islamic State.
As Biden concludes his presidency, he leaves Trump with pressing challenges in the Middle East, particularly concerning Iran’s advancing nuclear program. Critics assert that Trump’s withdrawal from the international nuclear deal in 2018 set the stage for Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Following Biden’s presidency, Trump will have to navigate whether to pursue a new agreement with Iran or support strikes against its nuclear facilities. The strategy towards Iran will significantly influence Trump’s broader regional policies.