Expected billions in revenue
Bayer ushers in the era of the next pharmaceutical blockbuster
01/10/2023 4:52 p.m
Bayer’s pharmaceutical revenues are bubbling up for a long time thanks to the anticoagulant Xarelto. But the patent is about to expire. Leverkusen have high hopes for the successor. The Dax group expects double-digit billions in revenue from this and three other new drugs.
The pharmaceutical company Bayer expects billions in sales from its four most important drug candidates. The DAX company raised the forecasts significantly. Hopes are pinned on the new anticoagulant Asundexian in particular. Pharma boss Stefan Oelrich now estimates the top sales potential of his four most important growth drivers at a total of more than twelve billion euros. So far, Bayer expected more than five billion euros. “We are making good progress in transforming our pharmaceutical business,” said Oelrich. “For the first time you’re beginning to see that a ‘post-Xarelto’ has actually set in at Bayer.”
The statements were well received on the stock exchange. The paper took the lead with a premium of more than four percent and thus prevented a major minus in the leading index DAX. “The statements on the pharmaceutical portfolio are very positive,” said a trader. “Now it will be interesting to see what the analysts say.” He points out that Bayer stock was at times heavily impacted by downgrades at the beginning of the year. “The question now is whether the skepticism will be revised,” he says.
Replenishment from the pharmaceutical pipeline is essential for the Leverkusen group, since the patents on its blockbusters – the anticoagulant Xarelto and the eye medicine Eylea – expire in the middle of the decade. Xarelto alone brought 4.7 billion euros into the coffers worldwide in 2021 – almost a quarter of the total pharmaceutical revenue and more than ever before. But that’s changing: When Bayer soon presents its balance sheet for 2022, it will become apparent that revenue has been declining for the first time: patent protection has already expired in Brazil and the reimbursement price in China has fallen significantly due to tendering processes.
Market maturity 2026
For a long time, however, analysts considered the pipeline to be too weak to be able to absorb sales losses after the top drugs’ patents expired. But with the anticoagulant Asundexian for the prevention of thrombosis and strokes, which is in the third and thus decisive phase of clinical development, the prospects have improved significantly.
Oelrich believes Asundexian alone has a peak sales potential of more than five billion euros and thus more than any of his other drugs. So far, Bayer had not published a sales forecast for the anticoagulant, which should be ready for the market in 2026 and, according to initial data, led to significantly lower bleeding rates than the anticoagulant Eliquis from competitors Bristol-Myers Squibb and Pfizer.
Cell and gene therapy platform potential
The US company Bristol-Myers Squibb, together with the Johnson & Johnson subsidiary Janssen, is promoting the comparable active ingredient Milvexian, but unlike Bayer has not yet started the phase III study. “We’ve gotten a lead there that we want to keep,” says the Bayer manager. Being first in this new drug class would be a real advantage in the $30 billion market. In contrast to the Xarelto active ingredient rivaroxaban, Bayer develops Asundexian alone and can exploit the full potential of the most lucrative pharmaceutical market in the USA with the worldwide rights.
- For the kidney drug Kerendia, which according to Oelrich had an “incredibly good” market launch in the USA, the company has increased its forecast and is now assuming possible sales of more than three billion euros instead of more than one billion euros.
- For the cancer drug Nubeqa – which Bayer believes has the potential to become the standard therapy for prostate cancer patients in the early to late stages of the disease – the company continues to expect peak sales potential of more than three billion euros.
- For the active substance elinzanetant, which is currently being tested in a phase 3 study for the treatment of hot flashes during menopause, Oelrich forecasts further sales of more than one billion euros. Bayer expects the first results from this study in the second half of this year.
“In addition, positive study results from our cell and gene therapy platform offer potential that cannot yet be precisely quantified, but could generate sales of several billion euros,” said Oelrich.
In recent years, Bayer has strengthened its pharmaceutical business, particularly with deals in the field of cell and gene therapies, which are currently among the most expensive drugs in the world. The Company’s development portfolio in this area includes several compounds in various stages of clinical development. Overall, Bayer currently has almost 40 programs in clinical development.