Unexpected growth! – Blockware-Intelligence sees a bright future for Bitcoin (BTC) adoption. The speed of the latter would exceed that of the technologies used by a very large part of the world’s population.
BTC Adoption: An Exponential Growth Curve
L’adoption bitcoin market could reach 10% by 2030according to report of Blockware Intelligence. Concretely, it would therefore be faster than the adoption of other disruptive technologies such as the automobile or electrical energy.
Can readers of this report take such an optimistic forecast seriously? From a methodological point of view, this forecast is partly based on an examination of the adoption curves of 9 disruptive technologies.
Blockware Intelligence has notably to analyse the adoption of the automobile, electric power, smartphones, the Internet, and social networks. She has also looked at that of Bitcoin since 2009.
Through these observations, Blockware Intelligence identified a common model to the adoption of these technologies. The latter would follow a similar diagram of exponential S-curve “.
But’adoption technologies based on networks nevertheless has a specificity. She would be much more fast compared to market forecasts.
Without going into technical detail, Blockware Intelligence then calculated this 10% figure using 2 indicators :
- the cumulative sum of net entity growth.
- the 10-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of the net growth of this cumulative sum.
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Internet as leverage to bitcoin adoption
Adoption of Bitcoin would reach saturation faster, compared to that of other disruptive technologies. The specificity of the motivation behind the use of Bitcoin would explain this higher rate of adoption:
- consumers adopting technologies such as the automobile, electric power or smartphones, seek convenience and efficiency;
- a direct incentive of a financial nature would in turn, cause a faster adoption of Bitcoin.
In addition to this monetary incentive, the macro environment present day and the Internet would also work in favor of a increase fast from bitcoin users.
But the adoption of Bitcoin, like that of the Internet and social networks, also benefits from a particular phenomenon: thenetwork effect.
Put simply, the adoption of these technologies is accelerating asincrease from their baseusers. This phenomenon is easily observable in the case of social networks. The more users a social network has, the more attractive it is to potential new users.
This figure of 10% is also found in a report by the European Central Bank (ECB) on crypto-assets. If Blockware Intelligence sees global Bitcoin adoption of 10% in 10 years. The results of the ECB survey show that 10% of households already hold cryptocurrencies.
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