From 1930 to the present day. For fans of economic history and international finance, the blog article published by Arthur Hayes should be a little treat to consume without moderation. The co-founder of BitMEX goes back in time and draws a clear observation on the monetary policies of the world’s major central banks for several decades and draws the following conclusion: Bitcoin is an unprecedented opportunity for humanity, finance and your wallet . In the second part of his presentation, he will then detail the new economic opportunities that the establishment of different Bitcoin spot ETFs will bring to the four corners of the world.
The new world order according to Arthur Hayes
Accustomed to hyper optimistic statements about Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, Arthur Hayes is one of the media stars of our ecosystem. On January 15, he delivered a comprehensive and dense article where he overview the global economy of the last fifty years by pressing the monetary policies. For him, the significant increase in sovereign debts of States can only lead to devaluation of currencies of the globe as well as an explosion in the price of the safe haven asset of the future: Bitcoin. This is a succinct summary of its first part.
But let’s now see what he plans regarding the trading around the Spot Bitcoin ETF. Because for him, the approval of these financial products in the United States should lead to the creation of other similar products around the globe. He is particularly thinking of China, which should not let the Americans capture this massive influx of new money. Once different spot Bitcoin ETFs exist in multiple time zones, significant arbitrage opportunities should thus see the light of day and this is what he insists on.
New arbitrage and trading possibilities in a post-Bitcoin ETF world
Indeed, with the game of jet lag and the proliferation of ETFs offered by different entities, there could be small price differences who will open the door to arbitration specialists. Extract :
“Bitcoin is now a global market and price discovery is mainly done on Binance (based in Abu Dhabi, I assume). For the first time in a long time, bitcoin markets will have a predictable and sustainable arbitrage opportunity.
Imagining that billions of dollars in flows are concentrated over a one-hour period on less liquid exchanges that will follow the prices of their larger Eastern competitors, I expect there to be juicy opportunities to spot arbitrage. »
Arthur Hayes on the arrival of Bitcoin ETFs and arbitrage opportunities – Source: Coindesk
He envisages that the trading of bitcoin will become commonplace in the near future and that banks could take advantage of this to enter the game massively spot Bitcoin ETFs. By lending money against spot Bitcoin ETF holdings, they could profit from the spread, i.e. the price difference between the ETF’s yield, the price of Bitcoin on markets and interest rates. All the details on this theory can be found in the article published on the BitMEX blog.
Over the next few months, Arthur Hayes projects a bearish crypto market, but from a long-term point of view, it’s quite the opposite! From more than $700,000 to at least $1 million, the investment director of family office Maelstrom shows overwhelming optimism.