The trouble continues for the bears! – THE Bitcoin (BTC) ends the first quarter of 2023 by more than 70%. Who would have believed it after the multiple setbacks of the cryptocurrency industry during the year 2022. As of now, many investors are beginning to believe in a new bull run. Not to mention April Fool’s Day, hopes for a change in monetary policy from the FED and the recent rise in its balance sheet following the banking crisis, have supported the crypto king’s rebound. Because precisely, they have revived the hope of a return of liquidity on the financial markets.
The latest technical analyzes would gradually point towards a neutralization of its bear run since its last ATH in November 2021. To the point that the bears wince as they approach a major level. The fact that the dollar and bond rates remain in a correction phase maintains this scenario. And if inflation in the US continues to ebb as the Fed wants, the bulls would feel strengthened.
In a market context that seems to be recovering from the worries of the banking sector, let’s see if Bitcoin would manage to maintain its good momentum of the first quarter.
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Bitcoin in Monthly Units – Three Months Up in a Row!
Bulls can pop champagne in moderation. In effect, the price of Bitcoin has just chained a third consecutive month of increase, a first since the first quarter of 2021. It managed to momentarily cross $26,000 and the Tenkan in monthly units. From now on, the symbolic bar of $30,000 is within shooting range, so much so that the bulls have tried a few approaches without great success.
However, we note that the prices are slightly below the lower limit of the Kumo (Ichimoku Cloud), the Senkou Span B (SSB). Could this signal going against the trend at the start of the year from the king of cryptos thwart the neutralization of the bear run? Even if future performance does not predict past performance, the bulls still remember the three months of the second quarter of 2022 in bright red.
In parallel, the position of the Chikou Span certainly above the Kumo would not fuel the desire for a more substantial upward movement. The fact that it is below the price of BTC, the Tenkan and the Kijun, would eventually be an obstacle to erasing the losses of the last wave of correction. But the gap between the downward-sloping Tenkan and the sideways Kijun still leaves hope for upside potential towards pivotal levels.
Assuming a pass of four, the price of Bitcoin would test the resistance zone of $30,000-35,000 so that he would not be very far from overrunning the Kumo. This would correspond to a return on the 50 and 61.8% of the last Fibonacci retracement of the great corrective wave from 46,000 to $16,000.
Conversely, failure below $30,000 would cause prices to stall below the Ichimoku cloud in monthly units. And perhaps a legitimate break from the rebound provided the $26,000 asserts its favorable polarity shift (moving from resistance to support). Otherwise, the bears would risk regaining some color.
Bitcoin in weekly units – Courses finally settled inside the Kumo
By crossing $20,000 and $26,000 respectively at the end of the first quarter of 2023, Bitcoin validated a chart structure likely to lead us towards a neutralization of its bear run since its last ATH in November 2021. On the one hand, the king of cryptos has relied on higher supports than the previous ones since the end of December 2022. And on the other hand, he would be on the verge of confirming the crossing of $26,000 accompanied by a return classes inside the Kumo.
If the weekend passes peacefully, we could see a status quo change in the price of BTC against Kumo. At the same time, the Chikou Span will have their work cut out for them to emulate. It will have to go back above the descending line and the Kijun in weekly units anyway. Even an immediate break above $30,000 would not allow a re-entry of any of the Ichimoku curves in the cloud. In this sense, the bulls would be far from being definitively off the hook.
Insofar as the bulls manage to afford the $30,000 scalp, the Bitcoin price would formalize the neutralization of its bear run by settling serenely in the Kumo. With the possibility that it could move towards $35,000. On the other hand, a rejection under the resistance would lead it towards $26,000. What would be the subject of a test concerning the solidity of this support.
Bitcoin in daily units – Exiting the bullish channel from the top?
In daily units, the price of Bitcoin is trying to break out of the bullish channel from above to rally $30,000. However, in the interest of the bulls, a filling of the gap between the Tenkan and the Kijun would prove necessary from a graphical point of view to increase their chances of reaching this level without real excess. This would mechanically result in a short-term consolidation.
Based on this potential scenario, prices would drop back towards $26,000 or the Kijun near the middle line of the bullish channel. Without them threatening his position beyond the Kumo. On the other hand, the bulls would have the opportunity to drive home the point better against the bears through a throwback on one of the two key targets. Because by catching their breath, they could initiate an upward movement in the best technical conditions to propel the price of BTC beyond the bullish channel and $30,000. If their wishes should be granted, the bears would approach the beginning of a capitulation as the neutralization of the bear progresses.
In the event that things go unexpectedly wrong, the king of cryptos must absolutely not break the $22,000. Otherwise it will definitely exit the bullish channel from below. We would risk calling into question the rebound at the start of the year. A forced landing in the direction of $20,000 would not only send the wrong signal to the bulls. But the bears could go wild.
In summary, the neutralization of Bitcoin’s bear run since its last ATH in November 2021 would seriously take shape. For one thing, courses are finally inside the Kumo in weekly units. And on the other hand, the warning zones are relatively far away for the bears to try to change the balance of power.
However, the reasons for the current rebound remain conditioned. Not only should inflation not play spoilsport again. Especially since China, the biggest consumer of raw materials, is starting up again. While Europe and the United States are in an economic downturn. But even more worryingly, it could not be ruled out that the recent increase in the Fed’s balance sheet is only a short-term palliative. In this case, investors would therefore make an error of interpretation. With the risk that the king of cryptos abruptly interrupts the neutralization of his bear run.
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