Can Bitcoin continue to climb? – An important week begins on the financial markets. Indeed, this Wednesday, the EDF (Federal Reserve of the United States) will decide on the rate hike. Also, quarterly results will arrive at the end of the week with companies like Apple, Google, Amazon or even Meta. The market could be calm before Wednesday, and the weekend could be volatile. Are risky assets bullish again ? This is the Weekly Macro Point!
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Bitcoin could blow, and head towards the support at $20,500?
After a nice climb of more than 55% for the king of cryptocurrencies, would it be time to breathe a little? Bitcoin (BTC) seems to block at the level of resistance at $24,200 :
After the breakout of the zone of bracket at $19,000 in November, BTC rallied well. Indeed, buyers have been able to build a bracket at $16,500, and took the opportunity to change the dynamic. By closing above $18,400Bitcoin has once again become bullish short term. Also, this allowed the course to return to the tidied up Between $19,000 and $24,200. Theoretically, a return in a range generates a return at the level of the opposite terminal. Here, a return to the level of resistance at $24,200 was to be expected, and here we are.
Since then two scenarios seem to take shape:
- Bullish scenario : the resistance at $24,200 give in, a squeeze shorts is taking place and the price is heading towards the next resistors at 28,800 and $31,000.
- Downside scenario : the resistance at $24,200 holds, the sellers regain control in the short term and bring the price to the level of the bracket at $20,500. It will be necessary to maintain this support to hope for a rebound.
The momentum is bullishthe lows and highs are ascending and the RSI maintains the bullish trendline implementation in June 2022. Also, the stochastic came out of his contraction area. Indeed, the stochastic had been contracting since October 2021. The exit generated a strong upward movement. Is the movement over? For now, the stochastic is still trending upbuyers must take the opportunity to break the resistance.
BTC hits a new all-time high!
Unfortunately, this is not an ATH at the Bitcoin price level. This is still good news, because Bitcoin is increasingly secure :
We see it on the curve, the hashrate hits a new all-time high. This is even the largest increase over 30 days. This indicates a more strong competition at the miner level and this shows the growing interest in the king of cryptocurrencies.
Although this is good news for Bitcoin, it does not mean that the price of Bitcoin will follow. As we saw above, BTC price remains below resistance at $24,200 for the moment.
New rejection coming for the dollar? Gold could take a break
The dollar should fall to the resistance zone at 102.5 points
The dollar index chart is at an important zone. After sliding gently under the 102.5 point supportthe course is re-testing this area:
The rejection is not clear below the area to 102.5 points. Sellers should regain control at the level of the institutional bias (EMA 9/EMA 18). The institutional bias is on the downside and the price could be rejected in the coming days. In case of rejection, capital would leave the dollar to go to riskier assets such as cryptocurrencies. On the other hand, if buyers regain strength, capital could exit risky assets.
The momentum is always fragile on this asset. Indeed, the RSI broke the bearish trendline, but it continues to show descending lows and highs. We will have to continue to watch the development of the dollar carefully, as this will affect cryptocurrencies.
Gold Weakening in Shorts Reload Zone?
Gold has been in good shape for a few months. However, the price remains stuck in a ranges between $1,690 and $1,970. In addition, the course is in the shorts reload area (0.618-0.786 Fibonacci retracement) a sales area :
After a nice rise since October 2022, the price could take a break, as operators could take profit. This does not mean that the price of gold will collapse, it could return to the level of the 9 and 18 moving averages which are oriented upwards. A return to $1,870 is entirely possible, and the course could bounce at that level. It will be necessary to continue to display troughs and ascending peaks to keep a bullish momentum on this asset.
The momentum is bullish, a rebound could take place in the coming days at the level of the bullish trendline. We must keep this bullish trendline for buyers.
The US market is holding up
At the start of 2023, risky assets are on the rise. Can the US market break through resistance near price?
S&P 500 still under resistance at $4,100
The price of the S&P 500 has the possibility of changing momentum by closing above $4,100 :
To turn bullish again, the S&P 500 must break the resistance at $4,100. This would give a strong signal for risky assets, but price action remains below for now. In the event of a break of this resistance, the price could move towards the shorts reload area Between $4,300 and $4,500.
Note, a rejection at the level of resistance would be a bad omen. Indeed, in the event of a break in the bracket at $3,900the sellers would regain control and have the possibility of making a new low. If this trend sets in, cryptocurrencies could follow.
Bullish signal for the NASDAQ?
the NASDAQ is very close to changing momentum. To start a new bullish momentumit will be necessary to close above $12,165 :
The course is always located under the resistance at $12,000. If exceeded, the price would join the next resistance at $12,700. A rejection could cause the price to return to the support level at $11,000or even to make a new low.
The momentum sends a bullish signal. Indeed, the RSI has come out of its contraction zone from the top, a strong upward movement could arrive. For this, it will be necessary to confirm by closing above $12,165.
the Bitcoin is at the resistance level at $24,200, a return to $20,500 is not to be ruled out. This would allow buyers to regain strength. Whatever happens, it will be necessary to break this resistance zone to find colors for the king of cryptocurrencies. the hashrate bitcoin hits a new all-time high, this shows interest in bitcoin and allows for greater security. The dollar is at a crucial zone, it would take a rejection to keep capital flowing into risky assets. The US market is very close to changing momentum, but it will need to be confirmed in the days to come.
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