Bitcoin (BTC) Stuck Under $25,000 – The Dollar’s Blame? The Weekly Macro Update

A possible rebound, despite the resistance – I’inflation rises again in France. It increases by 6.2% in one year. THE foodstuffs increase by more than 14% in one year. Americans are also affected by inflation. They seem to be more and more numerous to turn to bitcoin. Since the beginning of 2023, Bitcoin has been on the rise again, but the price is blocked at 25,000 dollars. Could a rebound occur in the coming weeks? Can the dollar run out of steam in the short term? This is the Weekly Macro Point!

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Bitcoin Could Return to $29,000?

For the past few weeks, Bitcoin has been stuck below the level of resistance at $25,000. For the moment, the buyers cannot get rid of the sellers at this level.

Bitcoin price against the dollar (3D)

In a three-day time unit, Bitcoin is in the process of rebound at the level of institutional bias (EMA 9/EMA 18). Indeed, the buying interest can be seen thanks to the wicks left at the 9 and 18 moving averages. To confirm the rebound, it will be necessary to close above $25,250. A close at this level would return the price to the next resistance level at $28,800. In case of rejectionthe price could return to the level of the bracket at $21,600. Whatever happens, it will need to hold the last low marked at $21,350 to keep the momentum going with bottoms and rising tops.

THE ROI is in the process of diverge, but it is not yet confirmed. To avoid a bearish divergence, one would need to close above 72. In the event of a close below the last low, a bearish divergence would be present.

AT very short termBitcoin is stuck under $23,900.

Bitcoin is stuck below $23,900 - March 1, 2023
Bitcoin price against the dollar (4H)

The price failed to get rid of the resistance at $25,000. It then fell below $23,900. For the buyers, it will be necessary to take back this level to try to break the resistance at $25,000. On the other hand, in case of rejectionthe price could return to the level of the support identified in unit of time 4 h at $22,500.

The momentum is once again encouraging in the very short term. Indeed, the indicator develops above the bearish trendline and above the resistance area at 51 of RSI.

Risk off: the dollar could slow down and gold rebound?

The dollar at the level of an important resistance at 105.5 points

Bitcoin has struggled to perform for the past few weeks as the dollar rebounds. THE dollar is part of safe haven assets. The rebound would have to end for capital to flow back into risky assets. The dollar is approaching significant resistance.

The dollar may slow to the resistance level at 105.5 points - March 1, 2023
Dollar index chart (3D)

For now, the institutional bias is always bearish, even with this rebound on the dollar. A rejection at the resistance at 105.5 points would be extremely positive for risky assets, such as cryptocurrencies. This will require a major rejection with a new low, below 100.8 points (red arrow). Otherwise, if capital continues to flow into the dollar, the course could return to the level of the next resistance at 108.5 points. Risky assets could struggle to perform if this scenario unfolds.

The RSI is bouncing back, but the tendency remains globally bearish since August 2022. We will have to see if the momentum changes momentum or if a new peak lower than the previous one is set up.

Gold finds buyers at $1,830?

The price of gold is still in a weekly range between $1,950 and $1,690. Recently, gold stalled at the weekly resistance at $1,950.

Gold is still in a weekly range - March 1, 2023
Price of gold against the dollar (3D)

The top marked at the end of January is fragile. This is a “V top”. The course is at the level of a support at $1,830. The price could rebound. The wick left below support is showing interest on the bull side, but it will take a more convincing bounce. Also, for the moment, the institutional bias is on the upside. The price must go back above the moving averages 9 and 18 and use it as support. If the bulls fail, further support levels can be found at $1,800 and $1,730.

The RSI broke the bullish trendline, but a rebound could take place. It will be necessary to see if the RSI maintains a bullish momentum or if it marks a higher high, lower than the previous one.

Despite the rejection on the US market, the dynamic remains encouraging?

The S&P 500 could rebound to $3,900

The US market is showing fragility at the level of significant resistances. This is the case for the S&P 500 which is stuck at the resistance at $4,100.

Against the dollar, the S&P 500 is rejected - March 1, 2023
Price of the S&P 500 against the dollar (3D)

The sellers showed up at the resistance level at $4,100. However, the price still shows troughs and ascending peaks. Recently, the price has been developing above the latest high at $4,100. Besides, it is always above the last low at $3,760. To continue the bullish momentum, price should rebound and close above the latest high at $4,195. A close like this would put the S&P 500 back in the shorts reload area (0.618-0.786 Fibonacci retracement). In the coming days, the price could rebound to the level of the bracket at $3,900.

We already said it in the previous editions : the RSI was approaching a resistance zone and one rejection was possible. The RSI blocked at the level of the bearish trendline. However, the momentum is encouraging, as it still shows a bullish momentum. If it continues and develops above 60 RSI, the trend may continue.

The NASDAQ could rebound at the level of the institutional bias?

For its part, the NASDAQ also has the opportunity to bounce back. Recently, the price broke the bearish trendline and the price shows bottoms and rising tops.

NASDAQ may bounce off support at $12,000 - March 1, 2023
NASDAQ price against the dollar (3D)

The NASDAQ is in uptrend since the close above $11,680. Recently, the price confirmed the uptrend, closing above $12,165. Consequently, a rebound seems possible at the level of the support at 12,000 dollars (green arrow). In addition, the course is at the level of the bullish institutional bias which could serve as a dynamic support.

The RSI is bullish. It evolves above the bearish trendline and displays a bullish momentum. To continue this momentum, the RSI must continue to develop higher, closing above 62.

In the end, the Bitcoin blocked below $25,000but buyers have the opportunity to show themselves at the level of the 9 and 18 moving averages in a three-day time frame. In 4 hoursyou have to resume the resistance at $23,900. THE dollar keep on bounce. It would have to run out of steam for risky assets to express themselves. I’gold is at the level of support. A rebound seems possible around $1,830. For his part, the US market happened recently dismiss at important resistances, but the S&P 500 and NASDAQ are now at support levels. Could a rebound occur in the days to come? After a complicated year 2022, it seems that the trend is gradually changing. If the US market rebounds, cryptocurrencies could follow.

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