To infinity and beyond ! – Dreams of wealth, we all have them. Difficult during its first bitcoin purchases, not to imagine prices exceeding our expectations. Although the reality of the economic world is very different, everyone is free to try their hand at predictions, even cypherpunks internationally renowned as Adam Back. Let’s dive into predictions that aim for the moon.
A $10 million BTC for Adam Back
” […] between January 2013 and December 2022, bitcoin was multiplied by 2 each year on average (x1200 over 10 years). At this rate, we’ll be over $10 million per bitcoin and over $200 trillion in capitalization by the end of the next two halvings, in about 9 years. »
This figure, against appearances, is far from coming out of Adam Back’s hat. Hal Finney, the first to receive a bitcoin transaction from none other than Satoshi Nakamoto in person, had predicted this figure. The only way for such a thing to happen one day?
” [cela nécessiterait de] move a significant part of the stores of value held in bonds, the real estate market, gold, equity portfolios…”
Some suggest that bitcoin’s volatility will reduce over time. The analysis seems, indeed, very reasonable. The greater the capitalization, the more money is needed to vary the price by 1%, so the more difficult it is. In fact, volatility is falling. It might even make the case for wider adoption of bitcoin. Indeed, with volatility equal to goldeven fiat currencies, how to discredit bitcoin without putting our precious euros and dollars in the same basket?
However, for Adam Backco-founder of Blockstreambitcoin’s volatility decline over time is not nearly so obvious.
“Adoption could be punctuated by excessive hyperbitcoinization, rapid surges in adoption spurting in the context of weak currency and hyperinflation, in which currencies are collapsing. People will be pragmatic, and will adapt quickly as they see the value of their currency melt away, triggering a rush to bitcoin to protect their savings. »
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Bitcoin, the only refuge from hyperinflation
For Adam Back, bitcoin-based finance is immature, almost non-existent. However, structured products based on Bitcoin could be a real vehicle for adoption. We could imagine loans indexed to real estate, but whose interest would be guaranteed in BTC. As bitcoin gains more legitimacy, more financial products based on its technology could emerge, attracting capital and enabling industry growth.
“I think things will get ‘interesting’ over the next couple of halvings. It will happen quickly and we have little time to evolve the technology. Make it capable of accommodating the next billion users who will want to hold their own UTXO, their own key, in a censorship-resistant hardware wallet… all without weakening network security. »
The only barrier to adoption according to Adam Back? The maturity of the technology. This will have to be ready in time to accommodate this future craze, like second-layer networks like the Lightning Network. It is therefore a real technological race against the clock that has begun for the next few years.
Although the bitcoin volatility drops year on yearwhat Adam Back puts forward is an adoption of the type S-curve, like the Internet in its day. Namely an adoption that grows slowly until it passes a point of no return. From there, adoption skyrockets, reaching billions of people, just like the computer. For Bitcoin, the depreciation of our currencies inevitably correlates with the boundless impression that our central banks could prove to be a very credible trigger for hyperinflation. that would propel bitcoin to “hyper-adoption”.
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