Since the end of October, cryptocurrencies have tended to turn green with nice increases that have been recorded on the majority of the market. For cryptocurrencies to grow as assets risk-on, this may occur as part of a continuing decline in the DXY (the US dollar index). If the latter continues to weaken, the market will potentially take advantage of this to continue its relief rally. Of course, this is not the only element to monitor in the financial markets, although its influence is significant. Without further ado, let’s jump over to TradingView to start this weekend’s crypto highlight.
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Cryptocurrencies are under resistance, what will they do in the next few days?
After evolving under the MA100 in recent days, the market has managed to get rid of it. It reached the target at $1020/1030, which we mentioned last week. This level is a key resistance that the market has been rejected on several occasions since the end of August. The objective is simple: to continue the bullish rebound, the market must overcome this resistance at 1030 billion dollars. If he succeeds, in addition to the objective to 1080 billion dollars, we can envisage a return on the EMA200 which is below the resistance at 1147 billion dollars. To be exact, it is at 1.126 billion dollars.
However, although the daily trend is bullish, the possibility of a rejection at the current resistance should not be denied. In this context, it will be necessary to monitor the reaction of the price on the MA100 which is in confluence with the EMA 13. If the market is unable to rebound on this zone and break it down, we will see a return to the 944 billions of dollars. It is on this level that everything will be decided between the reintegration of the range of the month of September/October or a rebound to resume again the confluence MA100 and EMA 13.
Are altcoins in an interesting position?
On the side of the capitalization of altcoins, the situation is similar to that of total market capitalization. The altcoins managed to overcome the MA 100 as well as the 50% of Fibonacci, which allowed them to take off in the direction of the 400 billion and $413 billion. Now, the challenge for altcoins is to preserve the MA100 or even, ideally, the 50% of Fibonacci. In this context, a new support could be established in order to consider a rebound at the EMA 200 which is located at $440 billion.
By taking the $413 billion, the bullish trend will be preserved, which will allow a favorable context for certain altcoins to go up. Indeed, although the capitalization of altcoins is bullish, this does not mean that all altcoins will post strong double-digit rallies. As part of this, you will need to monitor each asset individually by measuring their strength within the market. Of course, when altcoin capitalization is bullish, the odds of a rebound are greater for all market assets.
Bitcoin dominance is in trouble, cryptocurrencies are taking advantage?
The BTC.D (Bitcoin dominance) returned to the level we mentioned last week at 40.44%. For the moment, the asset has not managed to overcome the various dynamic resistances that consist of the trio of EMA 13/15/32 as well as the MA100 which is a very interesting indicator as to the situation of the trend. Daily. For now, preserve a bearish bias on bitcoin dominance.
This decline in dominance does not mean a fall in the price of Bitcoin against the dollar. On the contrary, it picked up again. It must be understood in this situation that the capital is directed to other assets (Ethereum and altcoins). The fall of the DXY and the rise of the American indices allow the assets risk-on to make a rebound. In this context, investors favor Ethereum and altcoins in order to increase the performance of the portfolio.
BTC.D is very interesting, it must be monitored daily to understand if a rotation of capital is going to take place or if the current trend is going to be preserved. If Bitcoin dominance starts to sideways or continues to fall, Ethereum and altcoins will continue to take advantage of this and seek resistance at higher levels. If you are hoping for a trend reversal and a takeover of bitcoin, watch the 41.32%, it is a pivot level that must be taken back to hope for an uptrend.
Ethereum, an asset that holds up well against Bitcoin?
Since 2021, Ethereum has been in a range against Bitcoin. This is generally delimited between a support with 0.055 BTC and resistance to 0.0783 BTC. After a rejection at 0.0854 BTC, Ethereum has been trending down in recent weeks. It returned to the pivot zone at 0.065 BTC. The good news is his ability to have maintained that level while bouncing back with vigor. From now on, the asset is located on the upper limit of the range. Will he be able to get rid of it? If Bitcoin dominance continues to fall and the backdrop is still favorable for the assets risk-on on the financial markets, Ethereum could take the opportunity to break this level upwards and return to 0.0854 BTC.
However, nothing is decided yet, it is risky to decide on a breakout while we are still under resistance. Sometimes it is better to wait for additional confirmations, although the gains are smaller. If Ethereum is rejected on this level, two scenarios are available to us:
- The strength of buyers which will benefit to bounce Ethereum on the trio of EMA in order to preserve the uptrend and allow a break of the upper limit of the range;
- The sellers are back and cause Ethereum to break the EMA trio against Bitcoin. In this context, it will be necessary to monitor the reaction of the price on the MA 100. If Ethereum does not manage to rebound on this level, it probably returns to the pivot zone represented in blue. This will hurt altcoins and allow Bitcoin to regain dominance.
What can we see on the ALT-PERP index?
Besides thealtcoin capitalization analysis we made at the beginning of this weekend crypto point, it is possible to use an index on FTX in order to gain exposure to a basket of cryptocurrencies. After staying on the Value Area Low below $1751, altcoins followed the upward path breaking out of the MA 100 and the POC after a short stop on these levels. The index propelled itself on the Value Area High which is confluent with the 200 EMA as well as horizontal resistance (August 2022 high).
For altcoins to continue the bullish path, they will need to hold above the confluence of technical levels. A weekly close above $2,330 would be a positive sign. However, if we believe the range is going to be preserved, a short entry on the current levels is a good idea. A downward rejection is not to be avoided, it is necessary to be prepared for different scenarios. However, if you have a bullish bias with the current bounce, it is entirely possible to split your risk if you are not comfortable with the current market backdrop.
Here we are at the end of this weekend crypto point. You can see the nice bounce the market is going through. Although he has freed himself from certain key levels, nothing is decided yet since the range is still valid. It is necessary to keep in mind the possibility of a rejection on the upper limit. Perhaps the long-awaited moment of a bullish breakout will occur? What should also be remembered is the fall of bitcoin dominance. This allowed Ethereum as well as altcoins to register nice increases. If the DXY continues to fall and future data macroeconomic are positive, this situation could continue with the continuity of a technical rebound of cryptocurrencies during the month of November.
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