Bitcoin goes green, the dollar looks gray – Le Point Macro Hebdo

Cryptocurrencies regain color – New week in the financial markets, and another important week. As the financial markets start to rise again, Q4 results are expected during the week. Among them, those of Netflix, Goldman Sachs or even Morgan Stanley. On the cryptocurrency side, a new exchange called GTX is under consideration, a project led by the former leaders of the crypto investment fund Three Arrow Capital. Bitcoin attracts capital and moves above $21,000. Are risky assets attractive again? This is the Weekly Macro Point!

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Bitcoin is changing momentum!

After several failed attempts to change dynamics, is it different this time? Bitcoin changed momentum closing above $18,400he took the opportunity to join the resistance at $21,000 :

The price of Bitcoin is up by almost 40% from the lowest marked at $15,500. The support created around $16,000 held, and even allowed a nice bounce. Volatility seems to be back for the king of cryptocurrencies. From now on, the course is at the level of a dual resistance with the presence of bearish trendline. This has already pushed back the price in March 2022, it could again block (red arrow). In the event of a break of this bearish trendline, the price could quickly move towards $24,500. If the buyers push, the price could reach the weekly resistance at $31,000 (green arrow).

The momentum is bullish, it continues to show bottoms and ascending tops. For the moment, there are no alarming signals on the momentum side.

Bitcoin is punishing short sellers (shorts) as shown in this graphic:

Derivatives markets allow traders tobuy or sell assets that are not in their possession. These contracts include clearance prices, and when the price reaches this price, you lose your entire position. Here, we see that a lot of actors were in shorts, the peak of liquidation is the highest since the end of July.

Risk off: the dollar index falls, gold continues to climb

The dollar back on the support at 102.5 points

The dollar index is falling, and cryptocurrencies finally seem to be benefiting from it, like Bitcoin, which is rising by almost 40% from the lowest. The dollar is back at the level of the 102.5 point support :

The dollar index is bearish for many months. It continues to mark new lows, but a bounce is possible at the level of 102.5 point support. Indeed, it is a key level, which allowed a rebound in May 2022. The institutional bias (EMA 9/EMA 18) is oriented downwards, it could push the price back in the event of a slight rebound.

You will have to wait a frank break of the support to look at the scenario represented by the red arrow on the graph. As long as the dollar index is bearish, risky assets can benefit.

Gold is in the short reload zone at $1,900

Gold is the asset that benefits the most from the fall of the dollar. Currently, the course is in the shorts reload area located between $1,900 and $1,970 :

The gold goes into a resistance zone. Indeed, the shorts reload area (0.618-0.786 Fibonacci retracement) is a resistance zone, where sellers can regain control. You also have to imagine that the buyers at the bottom of the range will want to take profits, and this is a great area to take some profits. It is possible that the price marks pauseand that it is heading towards the moving averages 9 and 18.

The momentum is bullish, the movement even seems very strong (inclination of the bullish trendline). Price may need to pause as it rises in a straight line from the low marked at $1,615.

The US market is at significant resistance levels

The S&P 500 could get rejected at $4,000

The S&P 500 is in contact with the bearish trendline. This one already has rejected the course three times :

The resistance to $3,900 seems to be outdated, but it is not yet acquired. Indeed, the bearish trendline could reject the course again. Also, the course is at the level of the first stop (0.382 Fibonacci retracement), a resistance non-negligible. If the buyers manage to break these resistances, the price could head towards the resistance at $4,100 then towards the shorts reload area Between $4,300 and $4,500.

The momentum is solid, it will be necessary to continue to show bottoms and ascending tops. A powerful movement could appear in case of development above 58 of RSI. Indeed, it is a level that has been blocked for several months.

Towards a rejection for the NASDAQ?

The NASDAQ could also be to reject at the level of bearish trendline :

In case of rejection at the bearish trendlinethe price could fall towards the bracket at $9,700. On the other hand, in the event of a break in the downward trendline, the price could afford a rise until the next resistance at $12,000. This is an important resistance that will have to be broken to find colors on this asset.

The momentum is close to the bearish trendline, a rejection could occur in the coming days. The momentum is building up contract in the long term, breaking out of this triangle could bring volatility. In the event of a break through the top of the triangle, bullish volatility could set in.

the Bitcoin regains short-term bullish momentum. The momentum is certainly bullish, but a rejection remains possible at the level of the bearish trendline. This will have to be broken to find colors on this asset. The dollar index continues to fall, gold and risky assets are benefiting. Gold is at a resistance zone, a break could be seen here. The US market for its part is close to significant resistance, sellers have the opportunity to regain control of the course. Risky assets are starting to become attractive again, will the year 2023 allow for a recovery?