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Bitcoin in danger below $19,000 – Le Point Macro Hebdo


The crypto crisis continues?– Binance had to reassure investors after a $2 billion transaction. This would be part of the proof of reserve audit, but it shows that investors are currently in doubt. All this against a complicated market backdrop, with Bitcoin recently dropping to $15,500. Can risky assets recover with a weakening dollar? Is gold profiting from the falling dollar? This is Le Point Macro Hebdo!

Bitcoin in danger below $19,000

After falling under the bracket at $19,000Bitcoin (BTC) touched the $15,500. Since then, BTC has been losing volatility and the buyers do not seem to be there.

Price of Bitcoin against the dollar (1D)

On a daily basis, Bitcoin is trending bearish. For the moment, the price is blocked at the level of the institutional bias (EMA 9/EMA18) bearish. In the event of a rebound, the price could head towards the zone of resistance at $19,000. This was supportive for several months, but the FTX affair caused BTC to fall below this important zone. For buyers, it will be necessary to recover $19,000 inasmuch as support to find colors on this asset. It is also the first stop (0.382 Fibonacci retracement), the price is often rejected at this level in a downtrend. On the contrary, if the trend fades, and the sellers run out of steam, the level could give way.

You have to keep the last lows and change the dynamic. If the fall is not over, the price could fall back to the level of the bracket at $11,500. This would imply a drop in 30% compared to the current price. If this scenario plays out, altcoins would also fall.

Momentum is trying to regain color by posting bottoms and rising tops. This is indeed the case since the fence above 38 of RSI. We must continue to display this dynamic in the days and weeks to come.

The recent fall has not spared the minors of Bitcoin, one would think that a capitulation gets ready :

Bitcoin miners massively sell Bitcoin.
Supply held by Bitcoin miners – Source: Glassnode

Bitcoin miners face a complicated situation, they have to sale part of their stock in bitcoin. It’s starting to look like capitulationbut this situation is not necessarily over.

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The dollar and gold could rebound?

The dollar is on a support zone

As the dollar seems to be gently drawing a top, it could rebound in the coming days. A bounce which will have to be short-lived for lovers ofrisky assets :

The dollar index could rebound in the coming days.
Dollar index chart (3D)

Within the financial markets, capital flows. It is for this reason that lovers of risky assets are waiting for a market top on safe-haven assets such as the dollar. A change of dynamic has taken place, but it still needs to be confirmed. In the short term, the dollar could bounce at the level of resistance at 109 points. To avoid a new rally of this asset, this asset will have to resistance here. EMAs are now bearishthey could act as dynamic resistance in the coming days. A return to the support level at 102.5 points will be a second important step for the confirmation of the top of the dollar index. Once the asset is dynamic bearishoperators could turn to risky assets which will then be more attractive.

The momentum is bearishwatch carefully for any signs of differences or shortness of breath.

Gold is bullish in the short term?

Gold recently rallied narrowly, closing above $1,730it could continue to climb in the coming weeks:

Gold could rebound in the coming weeks.
Price of gold against the dollar (3D)

Gold could benefit from the dollar weakness to recover capital. The course seems to be defended at the level of the bracket at $1,730which also corresponds to the neck line of the weekly “W”. To confirm the dynamics, it will be necessary to exceed the last summit located at $1,785. If this scenario occurs, the price could move towards the upper limit of the range at $1,970.

The momentum continues to rise, there is nothing to report on this side for the moment.

The dollar becomes bearish when gold returns to momentum bullish. Capital circulates, and it would seem that thegold takes advantage of the weak dollar. At the moment, Bitcoin and risky assets in general are unattractive, we will have to wait for capital to return to the level of risky assets. It may take time.

The US market in a false rebound?

The US market is rebounding, but the weekly momentum remains bearish for the moment. Is this another false rebound, or is it finally a market low?

Could the S&P 500 fall to structure a market low?

The S&P 500 is currently sitting above $3,900. The asset rebounded in “V bottom”, a structure that remains brittle :

The S&P 500 could fall to form a double bottom.
Price of the S&P 500 against the dollar (3D)

In the days or weeks to come, the S&P 500 could be dismiss at the level of resistance of
$4,150. This also corresponds to the location of the bearish trendline initiated at the end of 2021. A rejection seems likely, to possibly structure a market low around $3,500. For this, it will be necessary to keep the lows and change dynamics on a weekly basis by marking a double bottom. On the other hand, a recovery of the zone to $4,150 inasmuch as support could avoid another fall. Be careful, this is a level that will be defended by sellers.

The momentum arrives at the level of a resistance zone, and this could correspond to the scenario mentioned above. In the same way, if the RSI exceeds the zone of resistance to 58 of RSI, this would be an interesting signal for buyers.

NASDAQ still below $12,000

The NASDAQ has well bounced back the level of bracket at $11,000but buyers are unable to take over the area at $12,000 :

The NASDAQ is still trading below the $12,000 zone.
NASDAQ price against the dollar (3D)

The NASDAQ recently changed momentum by closing above $11,700. However, the price is still moving under resistors important, such as the one $12,000. This resistance also corresponds to the presence of the bearish trendline, it will have to be exceeded to find colors on this asset. In the event of a fall, the price could return to the level of the bracket at $11,000.

The momentum is reaching the level of the bearish trendline. This has been rejecting the price since September 2021, it will have to be exceeded to regain momentum bullish.

Capital seems to be flowing. The dollar has been attracting capital for over a year, but it seems to have been losing strength for the past few weeks. Gold seems to benefit from the situation, we will have to see if the trend is confirmed. For its part, Bitcoin continues its bearmarket. We will have to regain the $19,000 zone to try to become an attractive minimum again. Players will have to be patient before finding interesting risky assets. The US market is rebounding, but it is still fragile, like the S&P 500 which is only structuring a “V bottom” for the moment.

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