After Bitcoin (BTC) reached a new all-time high in the middle of the week, there was a short-term price drop towards USD 62,500 on the same day. This sale also resulted in increased profit-taking on the market as a whole.
Although Bitcoin formed a new all-time high of USD 69,000 in the wake of escalating inflation in the US, investors did not manage to confirm this price increase. In particular, the clear long overhang in leveraged bets on the price development of Bitcoin led to a short-term wave of sell-offs among large players in the market. Meanwhile, Bitcoin fell by around 10 percentage points to the south, before the course and thus also the altcoin rates could stabilize. Despite short-term profit-taking, the framework conditions on the financial market continue to speak in favor of a year-end rally on the crypto market.
Best price development among the top 10 altcoins:
Cardano (ADA)
Cardano’s course can stabilize recently and avert the threatened widening of the correction for the time being. Although the rise was sold off again at the beginning of the last week of trading, the bulls again averted the formation of lower price lows. In order to generate a new breakout attempt to the north, however, Cardano must necessarily grow back above its moving averages EMA20 (red) and EMA50 (orange).
Bullish variant (Cardano)
The bulls must first try to heave the ADA price back above the EMA20 at USD 2.05 and ideally move directly towards USD 2.15. This would also recapture the EMA50, currently at USD 2.11. If the bulls manage to regain these two sliding resistance levels and break the 78 Fibonacci retracement at USD 2.15, the area between USD 2.27 and USD 2.30 will be the first target. If this zone is also overcome, the chance of a subsequent rise in the direction of the strong resistance area between USD 2.37 and USD 2.46 increases noticeably. Only when Cardano stabilizes above the previous week’s high at USD 2.37 and also overcomes the resist at USD 2.46 per day’s closing price, the chart will brighten up significantly. This would also overcome the supertrend in the daily chart, a first important partial success for the bull camp. Then plan an increase to USD 2.57 in the next step.
If there is no increased profit-taking and this resistance level is broken, the upper edge of the red resistance area at USD 2.76 becomes the target level. As a result, the probability of a march through to the resistance at USD 2.86 increases noticeably. The Fibonacci extension of the superordinate trend movement runs here. In the medium term, an increase to the 138 Fibonacci extension at USD 3.02 is also conceivable. This would also include a retest of the all-time high at USD 3.10.
Price targets after overcoming the existing all-time high
If Cardano subsequently breaks out dynamically above the previous high, the next price target is activated at USD 3.36. Here is the first overarching price target in the form of the 161 Fibonacci extension. If the ADA rate can subsequently stabilize above the current all-time high, the bulls could try to run the 200 Fibonacci extension at USD 3.92 in the coming months. If the overall market continues to be positive, the next relevant price target is USD 4.83. This is where the 261 Fibonacci extension can be found. If Cardano can then overcome the psychologically important mark of USD 5.00, the maximum bullish price targets are activated at USD 6.29 and USD 7.75. These price targets are derived from the 361 and 461 Fibonacci extensions of the higher-level trend movement.
Bearish variant (Cardano)
The bears missed several times in the last few weeks of trading to push the ADA rate below USD 1.90 at the daily closing rate. Although the seller’s side managed to parry a breakout on the upside at the beginning of the last week of trading, the bears lack the power to make a new low. Only when Cardano slides back below $ 1.90 is a retest of the October 27 low at $ 1.82 likely. If they manage to sell the ADA rate under this support and thus also push it below the EMA200 (blue) and MA200 (green), the 50s Fibonacci retracement at USD 1.73 will come into focus as the target. If there is no countermovement here and Cardano also abandons the Fibonacci 50 retracement at USD 1.73 per day’s closing price, the correction extends to the Fibonacci 38 retracement at USD 1.56.
Even a direct relapse to the breakout level at USD 1.48 is conceivable. The bulls should try again to stabilize the ADA course here. If the bears manage to undercut this support, however, the 23rd Fibonacci retracement at USD 1.35 will immediately come into the focus of investors. Assuming that the overall market also corrects more clearly, Cardano could even fall back to the support zone between USD 1.10 and USD 1.00. This area is still to be seen as the maximum bearish price target for the coming months. As long as Cardano forms higher lows and does not break below USD 1.82, investors can take their first long positions in their portfolio.
Indicators (Cardano)
Both the RSI and the MACD are trending sideways without direction. In view of the sideways phase of the last eight weeks of trading, this is not surprising either. The RSI indicator has recently been able to stabilize in its neutral zone between 45 and 55, which for the time being contains the risk of a sell-off.
Worst price development among the top 10 altcoins:
Polkadot (DOT):
After a massive price increase to a new all-time high at USD 55.09, Polkadot corrected back to the strong support at 42.31 percent in the last two trading weeks. Based on this support, the bulls heaved the DOT price back to the cross resistance of horizontal resist and EMA20 (red) in the last few days of trading. Only when the bulls manage to recapture the resistance at 47.40 percent per day’s closing price will the area around USD 49.81 move back into the focus of investors.
Bullish variant (polkadot)
The buyer side must now do everything possible to buy the DOT price back towards USD 49.81 in a timely manner. This is the only way to avert an expansion of the correction. If the USD 49.81 is subsequently regained, the focus will be further north. Then an increase to USD 52.11 is likely. If this resistance is also broken, a subsequent increase up to the blue resistance zone between 53.95 percent and 55.09 percent should be planned. If the bulls manage to pulverize the all-time high without any significant setbacks, a march through to the 127 Fibonacci extension at USD 60.53 can be expected.
In the medium term, Polkadot should target the 138 Fibonacci extension at USD 64.95. Here investors will once again take their first profits. Only when the DOT price breaks through this resistance at the daily closing price does the 161 Fibonacci extension activate at USD 74.17 as the next relevant price target. If the USD 74.17 can also be sustainably broken in the coming trading months, a march towards the 200 Fibonacci extension at USD 89.23 is conceivable. In the long term, Polkadot should then also head for the maximum price target of USD 113.59. This target mark is derived from the 261 Fibonacci extension of the current price movement.
Baerishe variant (polkadot)
On the other hand, if the bears manage to cap Polkadot’s price below the EMA20, that would be considered bearish in the short term. As a result, Polkadot could leave its trend channel on the downside and if it breaks USD 44.57, it could again head for the previous week’s low at USD 42.47. This multiple support from EMA50 (orange) and Supertrend represents a strong support. A fallback below this would be seen as a short-term decision in favor of the seller. If the DOT price falls below this mark at the closing price of the day, the correction initially expands into the orange support zone at USD 39.67. If there is no bullish countermovement here, Polkadot should give way immediately towards USD 37.38. The eruption started here on October 13, reaching its all-time high. The lower Bollinger Band also runs here.
If this support level is also broken at the daily closing price, the probability of a correction widening to USD 34.91 increases significantly. Here is the 61 Fibonacci retracement of the higher-level price movement. If Polkadot also gives up this support, the correction extends to at least USD 33.45. However, a direct relapse of up to 31.38 percent is more likely. There is strong support here with the EMA200 (blue). If Polkadot breaks through this support dynamically, the USD 29.30 area moves into focus as the target.
In addition to a horizontal support line, the MA200 (green) can also be found here. The bulls should therefore try to avert a breakthrough, otherwise the chart image will cloud over again. The maximum bearish price target for the coming months can be found in the area of the purple support zone. The lows from September 2021 and the 38th Fibonacci retracement can be found between USD 26.13 and USD 25.46. From the current point of view, no relapse under this support area is to be expected. Investors should continue to use temporary price weaknesses above USD 39.67 for new entries.
Indicators (polkadot):
The MACD indicator last generated a sell signal in the daily chart. The RSI has also been trading in its neutral zone between 45 and 55 again in the last seven trading days. A recapture of 55, on the other hand, should give the DOT price another boost.
Top 10 stability
Bitcoin can shake off its temporary weakness after price turbulence in a 10 percent trading range in the past trading week and rise back towards USD 66,000 at the beginning of the week. This means that the crypto reserve currency is rising more strongly than its competition from the top 10 altcoins with a good four percent price increase. While Cardano (ADA) gained almost three percentage points in a weekly comparison and Ethereum (ETH) also increased in value by a good two percent, all other top 10 Altcoins show a price discount.
The list of underperformers is headed by Polkadot (DOT) who has lost a good 10 percentage points in value. The MEME-Coin Shiba Inu (SHIB) is again weak with a 7.5 percent price decline. Solana (SOL) is also falling somewhat after its recent strong performance and is almost three percent lighter in a weekly comparison. With a look at the ranking list, there are no changes to the position to report for this trading week.
Winner and Loser of the Week
After a bullish week before, a mixed picture emerges with a view of the top 100 altcoins this week. Despite a new all-time high for Bitcoin (BTC) and subsequent 10 percent interim consolidation, more than 50 percent of the top 100 Altcoins show an increase in price. The weekly winners are IoTeX (IOTX) with 104 percent increase in value followed by Loopring (LRC) with 99 percent. With a price increase of 88 percent, even a newcomer to the top 100, Livepeer (LPT), can rise significantly and form a new all-time high.
A good 25 of the top 100 Altcoins recorded a double-digit increase in value on a weekly basis. The list of weekly underperformers is headed by OMG Network (OMG), which has come under significant pressure in the last few days of trading after an “airdrop” -related rise in prices. On a weekly basis, there is a discount of almost 30 percentage points. The weakest altcoin from the previous week, SafeMoon (SAFEMOON), also lost around 15 percent of its value this trading week. Kusama (KSM) and ECOMI (OMI) are also weak, with a share price discount of 15 percent.
Disclaimer: The price estimates presented on this page do not constitute buy or sell recommendations. They are only an assessment of the analyst.
The chart images were created using TradingView created.
USD / EUR exchange rate at the time of going to press: 0.87 euros.