Decisive Obstacles – Bitcoin (BTC) price takes a dip above $17,000, an impulse that can have at least two interpretations. Either the bulls don’t have enough strength to continue the rally they started a few days ago, or the markets can hope for future rises well above current levels before the year-end close.
Bitcoin Above $17,000: The Hope of $19,000 and the Realism of $16,500?
Bitcoin price goes up up to $17,420 on Bitfinex today, December 5, 2022, but it fails to hold above $17,000. Cryptocurrency is trading to $16,932 at the time of writing this article. Its price is currently recording a daily loss of 1.14%.
Today’s momentum above $17,000 has sparked optimism among some traders and analysts. The founder of the Eight trading company, Michaël van de Poppe, thus noted that “slowly, but surely, Bitcoin is going up”. He points the $17,400 – $17,600as the zone to cross, for Bitcoin to continue “most likely quite quickly” around $19,000.
The data from Whalemap support this hypothesis. Based on the areas of concentration of whales, the Whalemap team pointed to the existence of a ” gap » between $17,400 and $19,000. Theoretically, a consolidation above $17,400 could thus lead the price of Bitcoin quickly towards $19,000.
Nevertheless Whalemap does not rule out the possibility of fakeouts which are quite common. Despite his optimistic forecasts, Michaël van de Poppe also issued a bearish outlook in the very short term, that of a back to $16,500of a “potential sweeping of the floors”, before a recovery of the $16,900.
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The price of Bitcoin and moving averages: possible supports and resistances
An analysis of moving averages and recent fluctuations in the price of Bitcoin makes it possible to bring certain indicators closer to the scenarios mentioned above.
The Bitcoin price chart on a daily basis above shows that the 20-day exponential moving average (in orange), which is currently at the $16,968seems to act as a support for a few days.
In terms of resistance, Bitcoin thus seems to be attacking levels close to the 30-day exponential moving average (in green), which currently stands at $17,259without however managing to cross it durably.
To be able to rise and consolidate above $17,400, Bitcoin should therefore break this possible resistance around the exponential moving average over 30 days, which is also near the November monthly closing levelaround the $17,180. The bulls need to get those back too, before they can claim that $17,400+.
As for the $16,500 that Michaël van de Poppe pointed to, this level is around a hundred dollars near the 20-day simple moving average (red), which currently stands at $16,616. Before Bitcoin crossed it on November 30, this average then seemed to act as a resistance line for the cryptocurrency.
That $16,500 is even closer to the average exponential moving over 100 months which is currently located at $16,512. On a monthly basis, the price of Bitcoin has not closed below this average during these bear markets (and even for at least 3 years), even if it has closed close since last June, and despite a wick below in November.
Are the bulls ready to wake up by the end of the year? The short-term scenarios do not rule out this possibility of a rise towards $19,000, but the umpteenth tremors due to the FTX crisis could erase this hope. Another crucial meeting to watch for this month of December is that relating to the announcement of the next increase in interest rates in the United States. Will the reaction of the bulls then be strong enough to overcome the current resistance, if the Federal Reserve indeed confirms its desire to moderate the rise in rates?
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