Bitcoin on January 14 – the $21,000 crossed, time for revenge?

The king of cryptos soon to return to $20,000 and more? – It’s not a real firework but it looks a bit like it. Indeed, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) is regaining height at the time of writing. To the point that it is forcing its way above $20,000 or the 2017 ATH. continued fall in inflation in the United States.

However, could this rebound, which gained momentum the day before yesterday, spell the revenge of the bulls?, who themselves suffered so much in 2022? What is certain to date is that the year 2023 is starting on a good footing. However, we will remain cautious: the real reason for this rebound is rather attributed to a liquidation of shorts. That’s why I recommend that you don’t get fired up too quickly while waiting for real signals that could sound the bears’ real capitulation.

In a market context where major uncertainties could be gradually lifted like the current decline in inflation in the United States, let’s examine the latest technical analyzes of the king of cryptos and possible scenarios in the near future.

Bitcoin in Weekly Units – Prices Above $20,000 and Kijun

This week’s bullish candle has enough to rekindle the bulls. And for good reason, the price of Bitcoin is above the Tenkan. But above all, it’s currently flaunting beyond $20,000 and the Kijun as we speak. At the same time, the Chikou Span is coming back very close to prices. As a result, the crossing of the descending line, a condemned time, would again be reconsidered under certain conditions.

However, the awesome week we are witnessing is not a game changer regarding the BTC price status quo and the Chikou Span under the Ichimoku cloud, the Kumo. And if you have the intelligence to take a good look at the weekly chart, it is clear that we are only recovering the losses linked to the bankruptcy of FTX. Like what, between the lines, euphoria is not appropriate. Because precisely, the current rebound does not allow for the moment to fill the last wave of correction of last spring.

Assuming the Bitcoin price goes above the Kijun and $20,000 simultaneously, I wouldn’t say jackpot for the bulls. But the return towards the resistance of $26,000 would temporarily remove the danger of a new wave of bear run correction. Which would coincide with a Chikou Span probably in contact with the Tenkan.

Conversely, a failure below $20,000 in the form of a false breakout on the upside could be detrimental. With the fear that the king of cryptos could sink again towards $16,000 or even below, if the stress on the financial markets suddenly reappears.

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Bitcoin in Daily Units – Prices and the Chikou Span above the Kumo

Last week we left a bitcoin price not far from Kumo in daily units. From now on, it is largely catapulted beyond the cloud, thanks to a series of consecutive upward candles since January 08. Even better, the Chikou Span is too. Which would be a first since April 2022.

While the move away from the price of BTC against the Tenkan could be a sign of excess buying, this in itself would not be an annoyance in the short term as long as the two continue to follow each other higher. This would eventually favor a rebound extension towards $22,000. But if we want the scenario towards $26,000 to gain in probability, a temporary consolidation would perhaps be necessary to hope for a strong passage from the bulls.

In this sense, the latter would have control over prices on a sufficiently large time scale to lay the foundations for a neutralization of the bear run of the king of cryptos since its last ATH in November 2021, before glimpsing a new bull run. Otherwise, we have a margin of safety against the Kumo should the price of Bitcoin fail below the next resistances.

Has it been time for the bulls’ revenge? I would tend to say no as long as the current bounce does not result in higher highs and lower lows than the previous ones. And as such, it is simply nothingness. However, I do not remain obtuse if we manage to validate throwbacks on old resistances like $20,000 in the near future. But on the other hand, it will be necessary to count on the important thickness of the future Kumo in weekly units. And the fact that the Chikou Span will take some time to go back above the cloud, would encourage me to be vigilant.

Regarding the fundamental plan, bulls and bears should be attentive to the evolution of the Fed’s monetary policy. Since a few months, the fall in inflation in the United States would maintain hopes of an end to the rate hike cycle. This explains the recent good performance of cryptocurrencies supported by a favorable conjunction between the fall in the dollar and bond rates. And assuming that goes smoothly, perhaps the horizon would clear for the king of cryptos.

On the other hand, if the FED were to become hesitant to end its monetary tightening by noting that the solidity of the job market remains an inflationary threat, it could unpleasantly surprise us by raising the key rates, not far from or above inflation. .

Thus, the challenges of the days/weeks to come are two in number, either simultaneously or at different times. The first would be to know if Bitcoin would manage to chain sessions by crossing resistances. This would mean that we are starting from the basis of a neutralization of the bear run while waiting for real catalysts likely to amplify the potential rebound. As for the second, we will have to be patient with the next FED meeting on the 1^er february. And from this precise moment, a real trend could emerge on the king of cryptos for the first part of the year 2023.

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