Black Gold, Digital Gold – Bitcoin (BTC) remains below $40,000 as the macro environment does not favor bullish moves in risk asset markets. Despite this backdrop, some traders still see the possibility of bitcoin’s next bullish impulse to levels well above $40,000.
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Bitcoin under pressure from US embargo
The price of bitcoin makes yet another foray above $39,000 today, March 8, 2022, without being able to touch $40,000. Bitcoin is trading at $38,551 at the time of writing, and is currently seeing a daily gain of 1.88%.
US President Joe Biden’s announcement regarding the extension of sanctions against Russia by dealing a blow to Russian oil rocked the markets for risky assets like bitcoin:
“We ban all Russian oil, gas and energy imports. This means that Russian oil will no longer be acceptable in American ports, and the American people will deliver another mighty blow to Putin’s war machine.”
Brent benefited from this announcement, reaching $133, while risky assets such as equities came under downward pressure.
Forecasts by trader Michaël van de Poppe are going however to contrarian to what the normal asset price movement should be in the face of the American embargo:
“I don’t know what’s going to happen with the US price action embargo. The natural reaction would be for USOIL to rise a little further, while risk assets fall. In fact, I think the opposite happens with the impact of a “buy the rumour, sell the news” event.
From a technical perspective, trader Rekt Capital shared a weekly bitcoin price chart, to show the key levels to defend or cross so that bitcoin can regain levels again around $43,100.
For this bullish scenario to happen, bitcoin must, according to Rekt Capital, successfully test the green ascending diagonal support in the chart above, and break the dashed descending diagonal resistance line.
The forecasts concerning the price of bitcoin are in reality much more complex in a context strongly marked by the war in Ukraine and the economic and financial consequences of this conflict. Bitcoin remains bullish in the medium to long term according to on-chain data, but it is shaken by the “big” policy announcements in the short term.
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