© Reuters
Investing.com – After a sharp rise on Monday, and stabilization above $40,000 in the first part of the day yesterday, the price corrected sharply, between a peak at $40,870 around 2 p.m. and a trough at $37,760 in the evening, i.e. a drop of 7.6%.
The main factor behind this reversal is widespread risk aversion, as evidenced by the sharp plunge in US equities yesterday. The closed down 2.38%, while the lost 2.81%. But it is the , the index that displays the strongest correlation with Bitcoin, which plunged the most with a loss of 3.95% at the close.
From a technical point of view, Bitcoin’s inability to stay above $40,000 is undoubtedly a bearish signal, especially since slightly above this threshold is the 100-day moving average, at $41,000 currently, an indicator that has repeatedly blocked Bitcoin’s progress in recent weeks.
On the downside, the first potential support is the $38,000 area, before the February 24 low around $34,500, then the January 24 low around $33,000. Then, the major psychological threshold of $30,000 will come into play.
The technical profile of Bitcoin therefore remains largely bearish if we stick to the daily chart of BTC/USD. However, some clues help to clarify the picture, especially from the market.
Indeed, the average daily basis, or the difference between the spot price and the futures price, hit its lowest level in a year, which is generally seen as an expression of bullish sentiment among currency traders. forward contracts.
“The basis has only reached such lows twice in the past year: in July, before the summer short positions tightened, and in February. The July low coincided with the market bottom, while the February low was followed by greater BTC consolidation,” Arcane Research wrote in a report released on Tuesday.
Additionally, there are some signs that futures traders are becoming more active:
“Open interest in BTC perpetuals is currently near a one-year high, after rising steadily since early March, with more intensive growth in recent days,” Arcane wrote.
Finally, regarding the potentially influential events on Bitcoin today, note that ECB President Christine Lagarde will speak at 1:30 p.m.