The crypto market still cannot shake its weakness of the last few weeks. The consolidation trend in Bitcoin (BTC) also put pressure on the prices of many Altcoins in the past trading week.
The relative weakness of Bitcoins (BTC) is increasingly being carried over to the entire crypto market. The recent announcement of three rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve (FED) in 2022 is causing investors to increasingly switch from risky assets to lower-risk asset classes. Bitcoin is currently joining the weakness of the technology index (NASDAQ) and continues to trend bearish at the beginning of the week. Should Bitcoin correct again towards its low at USD 42,400, the altcoins will continue to weaken. At the moment it is therefore advisable to observe prices from the sidelines until the current uncertainty in the market disappears somewhat.
Best price development among the top 10 Altcoins:
Terra (Luna):
Terra continued to show its bullish side in the past week. Despite increasing selling pressure on the entire crypto market, the LUNA price generated a new all-time high at USD 81.50 on Monday, December 20. Terra also turned slightly south again in the last hours of trading, but in view of Bitcoin’s directionless course, this should not come as a surprise.
Bullish variant (Terra)
The LUNA course continued to increase in value. As long as the LUNA price stabilizes above the low at USD 52.17 in the coming trading days and can also bend up the upper Bollinger band in the medium term, an increase to the next price target at USD 93.93 is likely. If the LUNA rate does not drop significantly back to the south here, a march through to the 161 Fibonacci extension should also be planned in the coming trading weeks. That resistance can be found at $ 118.42. Here investors are likely to want to take more profits. If the bulls can sustainably break through this price mark, the medium-term price target of USD 145.45 comes into focus as the target mark. In the long term, a subsequent increase up to the 261 Fibonacci extension at USD 189.18 cannot be ruled out.
Bearish variant (Terra)
So far, the bears have not been able to sustainably push the LUNA rate back below the EMA20 (red). Only when Terra dynamically corrects below the support at USD 59.75 can the bears hope for more downside potential. If the LUNA price slides back below this price mark, the correction extends immediately to the old all-time high at USD 55.07. Again, resistance from the buyers’ side can be expected here. On the other hand, if Terra falls back below this support and also gives up the low at 52.23 USD, multiple support from the lower Bollinger band and the supertrend is already waiting in the area of 50.50 USD. If the LUNA rate breaks this strong support at the daily closing rate, the rate consolidation initially expands into the orange zone. The 61’s Fibonacci retracement and horizontal supports can be found in this area. Below USD 44.96, the chart deteriorates a little for the first time.
Terra should then fall back towards the Fibonacci 50 retracement at USD 39.30. Under this price mark, one should particularly look at the USD 37.87. In addition to the sales low from November 2021, the EMA200 (blue) can also be found in this zone. The first attempt should therefore be made with a ricochet to the north. Only when this support is undercut at the daily closing price, the correction extends further towards USD 34.76. The red support zone represents the maximum bearish price target in the short term. At the lower edge of this area there is a strong support level with the 38 Fibonacci retracement and the MA200 (green). Should the bears manage to break through this price level sustainably in the coming months, Terra could even correct up to USD 22.51. For the time being, however, such a significant price setback is not to be planned. Investors should use price setbacks in the range between USD 55 and USD 59 for initial purchases.
Indicators (Terra)
The RSI indicator as well as the MACD show buy signals. However, there is currently a bearish divergence on a daily basis. This first sign calls for caution. A persistent weakness of the crypto reserve currency Bitcoin could also lead to a more significant price consolidation at Terra.
Worst price development among the top 10 altcoins:
Polkadot (DOT):
Polkadot’s price development over the last four weeks of trading can be described as weak. After the DOT price reached a new all-time high in anticipation of the Parachain auctions, it finally only went downhill. After the Polkadot fell below key support at $ 28.77 earlier this month, the bulls missed the opportunity to stabilize the DOT. Polkadot formed only lower highs and lows in the daily chart in December. Today Polkadot is again at a fresh low.
Bullish variant (polkadot)
The bulls appear to have turned their backs on polkadot in the past four weeks of trading. Most recently, it was not possible to regain the important sliding resistance levels EMA200 (blue) and MA200 (green) on several occasions. Since the break in the trend channel on November 15th, the DOT price has been clearly heading south and, as expected, has not been able to benefit from investor interest in the topic of parachain auctions. The cops must try to initiate a technical backlash in a timely manner. The USD 26.13 mark should be seen as the first relevant resistance. If Polkadot manages to break back above this level, investors will focus on cross resistance at USD 28.77. A first, short-term directional decision can be expected here. If the bulls can recapture this resistance level in the long term and thus also break through the EMA20 (red) and the MA200, a breakthrough to USD 31.46 is likely. However, this multiple resistance from EMA200, supertrend and interim high from December 7th should be difficult to overcome directly.
From here on it gets more bullish
Only when the market as a whole can recover and investors show increased interest in the new Polkadot-based Altcoins such as Moonbeam and Alcala, the DOT price should strive northwards in a more sustainable manner. If the buyer can stabilize the DOT price above this resistance in the medium term, a subsequent rise to the 61 Fibonacci retracement at 34.47 is conceivable. If Polkadot does not pause here either and continues to rise in value, the next relevant price target is activated at USD 37.38. This price level represents the trailing edge of the current trend movement and must also be regained. In addition to the upper Bollinger band, the orange resistance area also contains the make-or-break zone for the coming months. A recapture should give Polkadot a further boost and, if the USD 39.67 is overcome, offer new price potential of up to USD 42.46. This resistance could not be overcome several times recently. If this chart mark breaks, the chart will brighten up further and price targets at USD 44.57 and especially USD 46.78 seem to be achievable again. At most, Polkadot could target the old all-time high of USD 49.81 in the next few months. According to the chart, there is no further upside potential for the time being.
Bearish variant (polkadot)
As long as the bears can cap the DOT rate below USD 28.77, at most even below USD 31.46, lower rates cannot be ruled out in the coming days and weeks. The maximum bearish price target announced in the last Polkadot analysis on November 29th has already been reached and fallen below by Polkadot with a break of USD 26.13. If the sell side keeps selling pressure high and Polkadot dynamically drops below $ 23.69, the correction extends to at least $ 21.72. If there is no resistance from the bull camp here either, a direct setback to the 23rd Fibonacci retracement of the entire trend movement is also conceivable. The lower Bollinger Band also runs in the area of 19.70 USD. Therefore, there should be at least one technical backlash to the north.
However, if this does not happen and Polkadot continues to weaken in the medium term and breaks through USD 17.89, the sell-off is unlikely to be over yet. Then the green support area between USD 13.13 and USD 15.43 comes into focus as the target zone. Again, the cops must resist. Should the crypto market expand its price correction in the coming months, a renewed test of the low from July 2021 at USD 10.52 cannot be ruled out. Investors should wait for a possible bottom in these areas before making any new long entries.
Indicators (polkadot):
The MACD indicator as well as the RSI continue to show sell signals, but are increasingly significantly oversold. As long as the RSI indicator does not move back into the neutral zone between 45 and 55, any recovery can initially only be viewed as a technical recovery reaction. Only an overcoming of 55 should spark a new upward dynamic here.
Stability of the top 10
The lack of price dynamics in Bitcoin continues to cause price discounts for the top 10 Altcoins. Only the three ecosystem projects Avalanche (AVAX), Terra (LUNA) and Solana (SOL) are convincing. Terra tops the list of weekly winners with a 20 percentage point increase in value. Avalanche with 16 percent shows a respectable bullish countermovement this week after a bearish previous week. The long list of weekly losers is headed by Polkadot (DOT) with a 19 percent course correction, followed by Cardano (ADA) with nine percentage points. Both projects recently disappointed with sustained underperformance. the Binance Coin (BNB) and Ethereum (ETH) are each losing around nine percentage points in value, as much as Bitcoin itself. The ongoing strength of Terra caused a change of place this week. Terra moves past Polkadot to seventh place.
Winner and Loser of the Week
As in the previous weeks, the price development of many top 100 Altcoins is influenced by Bitcoin’s range trading. The vast majority of the 100 largest cryptocurrencies show a price discount on a weekly basis. However, the price discounts are mostly limited. Gala (GALA) tops the list of weekly losers with a 28 percent drop in price. With BitTorrent (BTT) and Near (NEAR) there are also two previous week winners among the biggest losers of the week. Both cryptocurrencies lose more than 22 percentage points. Given this uncertainty in the market, investors apparently continue to hedge more and more short-term price gains.
The Internet Computer (ICP) as well as Holo (HOT) and Loopring (LRC) are also weak, each with a course correction of almost 20 percent. ICP in particular has disappointed significantly since its initial listing and is now trading 95 percent below its peak. Of the almost 20 altcoins that have shown a price increase, yearn.finance (YFI) with 58 percent and Arweave (AR) with percent increase in value stand out positively. Hedera (HBAR) with 27 percent and the Spell Token (SPELL) with a good 20 percent price increase were also bullish. The fact that only ten of the top 100 Altcoins were able to generate double-digit growth underlines the wait-and-see attitude of many investors.
Disclaimer: The price estimates presented on this page do not constitute buy or sell recommendations. They are only an assessment of the analyst.
The chart images were created using TradingView created.
USD / EUR exchange rate at the time of going to press: 0.88 euros.