Bloody weeks in the Middle East
Carlo Masala: “Many hostages will die”
October 9, 2023, 12:38 p.m
At least 700 Israelis die when radical Islamic group Hamas attacks Israel. Carlo Masala sees the attack as nothing less than a historical turning point: “This is the Israeli 9/11 and also the Israeli Pearl Harbor, because the attack took place deep into Israel,” explains the political scientist from the University of the Bundeswehr in Munich in conversation with ntv. He has little hope for the Israeli hostages held by Hamas: so far, they have refused all attempts at mediation.
ntv.de: What developments do you expect in the coming days?
Carlo Masala: There are clear signs of a large-scale ground offensive in the Gaza Strip in the coming days and weeks. According to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), 300,000 men and women have now been recruited. They are intended to destroy Hamas’s logistics and also completely eliminate Hamas as a political actor in the Gaza Strip.
What will become of the Israeli hostages held by Hamas?
The number is not comparable to all previous hostage-takings. Normally, Israel has always been willing to make far-reaching compromises for the freedom of its citizens. That won’t be possible this time. There have apparently already been attempts at mediation by Egypt and Jordan to at least get old and sick Israelis released. According to newspaper reports, Hamas refused to do so.
That means?
We see the first videos of executions of Israeli soldiers by Hamas in the Gaza Strip. The question will be whether Israel is trying to specifically free as many hostages as possible before the ground offensive, or whether this attempt will be made as part of the ground offensive. If that happens, one thing is clear: many hostages will die.
Is the attack comparable to the terrorist attacks of September 11th?
I don’t want to sound cynical, but the comparison is valid. The USA has a total population of 330 million people. Approximately 3,600 Americans lost their lives on September 11th. Israel has 9 million inhabitants, we are already at 700 deaths and there will be more, because many Israelis are in critical condition in hospitals. This is the Israeli 9/11 and also the Israeli Pearl Harbor, because the attack took place deep into Israel.
Before the attack, Israel and Saudi Arabia were involved historic agreement to normalize relations between the two countries and the situation in the Middle East. Is this agreement now history?
That remains to be seen, but it is suspected that Hamas’ terrorist attacks also serve the goal of destroying this agreement. It remains to be seen whether Saudi Arabia still stands by this agreement. If it fails, it would be a major setback for the region. Israel has already established diplomatic relations with a number of former enemies under the so-called Abraham Accords in order to normalize the situation in the Middle East. That’s what’s at stake now.