Bob Iger, photo from the cover of his book The Ride of the Life Time – DR
Rare are the bosses of the major media groups to express themselves on their vision of the market once the page of their mandate as boss has been turned. Bob Iger has chosen to speak, he who is preparing a new book which should be released in 2024 and in which he should explain why leaders have succeeded or failed during the COVID crisis. Among the essential points of his speech, several are worth commenting on. According to him, we are in a “era of great anxiety, because it is an era of great transformation. »
The former Disney boss expressed a very clear judgment on the potential of cinema for the next few years: “I don’t think movies will ever return, in terms of attendance, to the level they were before the pandemic. » He even drove the point home by stating: “The movie industry used to argue that you couldn’t create cultural impact without people going to the movies around the globe on the same weekend. I no longer agree. » And to conclude: “That doesn’t mean cinema attendance will go away, but it won’t come back to the level it was before. »
To date, the 2022 box office proves him right, in the United States, but also in Europe, where the performance of 2019 remains unmatched. And the shortening of the American timeline to 45 days is certainly not going to help matters.
Bob Iger expressed his concern for media groups that were not very diverse: “If you’re only in the chain business, you’re in a very tough spot. According to him, “Linear television and satellite are approaching a great precipice. »
The decline in audiences combined with the wave of unsubscription from cable channels that never ends is weakening traditional TV channels. If we add the new competition from streamers on advertising, the future of the channels is getting darker month by month. The firm MoffettNathanson recently mentioned it: “However, if the deterioration in the subscriber situation continues, we believe there is an increasing risk to our future estimates, particularly for 2023 and beyond, as the pay-TV ecosystem shrinks more rapidly. »
According to Bob Iger, not all streamers are in the same boat: “I don’t think all streamers are created equal. I don’t think they will all succeed. » His favourites? Netflix and Disney+. “Advertising will thrive in the world of streaming. I think what Netflix is going to do in terms of advertising, what Disney has announced, are smart moves because it’s going to give consumers choice. » His doubts: Peacock from NBCUniversal and HBOMax from WarnerBros.Discovery, specifying: “I’m not going to make predictions for others. »
For Bob Iger, things are clear: the future of studios goes through streaming. A warning for European players who have still not managed to place one of their platforms on the podium.