Boeing’s Starliner spacecraft is to make its second uncrewed test flight. After several successive failures by the company and in a tense international context, everyone is expecting a lot from this flight, which would be a breath of fresh air for all those involved.
Who could have imagined that what should have been a simple preparatory step before the start of serious things could become so stressful? On the night of Thursday May 19 to Friday May 20, 2022, Boeing’s Starliner capsule will take off, heading for the International Space Station. On paper, nothing very spectacular, and yet Boeing and NASA are crossing their fingers.
In principle, the mission is quite simple. Starliner must take off with a simple model named Rosie on board, and dock with the ISS to stay there for a few days before returning. Nothing much different from what Russian Soyuz and SpaceX Crew Dragon capsules regularly do. But this apparent simplicity should not hide the reality of a struggling company and a desperate space agency.
Missed ships and a Russiadisengaged
On the side of Boeing, to begin with, all is not rosy. This test mission called OFT-2 was preceded by an OFT-1, at the end of 2019, which ended in resounding failure. The capsule had never managed to reach the station and had almost exploded on the way back. The ensuing investigation showed major flaws in the capsule, both in the material and in the tests carried out by the company which were not relevant. Boeing had to lay low for a while, but also had to suffer a delay in August, when the capsule ready for launch had to return to the garage at the last moment for repairs. In the end, Boeing signed a contract with a fixed price of just over $5 billion, but certainly lost a lot of money in the operation.
Add to this the disasters of the 737 Max, the Boeing planes banned from flying after two fatal accidents at the end of 2018 and the beginning of 2019, which brought the company to its knees.
The capsule which is supposed to bring astronauts into space within a year was therefore built by a company which has multiplied failures and which is not certain to have corrected all the defects of its previous flight.
But NASA can’t just decide to give up. On the one hand, because a contract cannot be canceled so simply, but also and above all because the American agency really needs Starliner to work as planned. Since the start of the war in Ukraine, Russia has chosen to cut ties with Western partners, including in the space sector. Which means a gradual disengagement from the ISS, even if the way to get there is not yet decided, and an end to the Soyuz for non-Russian missions.
Deprived of these vessels, the agency has only one solution left: SpaceX. Elon Musk’s company is currently the only one able to provide astronaut journeys between Earth and the station. Which poses some problems. For starters, the fleet is very small: just four Crew Dragon ships, including one that is not yet fully built. In the event of any problem, crew rotations may be delayed.
Besides, SpaceX is not Moscow. Although relations with Russia are currently very tense, the advantage of having to do business with States limits the risk of seeing a sudden rise in prices. A private company in a monopoly situation will have no difficulty in setting its terms. NASA therefore has every interest in having several manufacturers ready to take turns. And this even if for the moment, one of the two seems much superior to the other.
Saving Private Boeing
That said, not everything is so simple. SpaceX has all of the winners: successful flights, already seven manned missions for the Crew Dragon, space tourism projects, etc. But Boeing has a heritage and brand prestige that should not be overlooked. ” Boeing is the symbol of triumphant Americaassures Xavier Pasco, American space specialist. If Boeing is doing badly, in terms of image it is the United States that is also doing badly. »
In the American Congress, elected officials are mostly very attached to old-fashioned space. That carried by large industrial companies, such as Boeing, which has accompanied NASA since the beginning of the American space program. On the other hand, newcomers like SpaceX, which nevertheless offer products that are often less expensive, are rather poorly seen by the defenders of yesterday’s manufacturers. Elon Musk himself, with his provocative statements, is not always in the odor of sanctity.
For former astronaut Charlie Bolden, this difference in treatment has concrete consequences. He said at a public meeting: Nobody likes SpaceX! If it hadn’t been for Boeing, the commercial manned program would have been nowhere. The attitude of members of Congress changed when Boeing entered the competition, they were willing to fund the program. “A choice that is quite easily explained for Xavier Pasco:” SpaceX is very verticalized. They do everything in-house from California. On the contrary, Boeing tends to involve contractors in multiple states, which has significant economic benefits. Local elected officials cannot afford to refuse funding that will create jobs at home. »
NASA therefore has every interest in seeing Boeing stay in the race if it wants to keep the good graces of elected officials. But even if tonight’s flight is a success, it’s not the end of the trouble. Boeing still had to draw on its reserves to carry out this program and will not see the benefits for a while. It will take at least a year to see astronauts aboard Starliner. Failure to do so would have disastrous consequences. ” It would be a huge blow for Boeing and for the United States in general.predicts Xavier Pasco. This would confirm the image of a company in difficulty which multiplies the failures. And the United States would lose prestige there. Suffice to say that this night promises to be tense at Cape Canaveral.