Boris Johnson survives no-confidence vote

After months of criticism and speculation about the Partygate affair, there was a showdown in Westminster on Monday. Boris Johnson endured an internal party no-confidence vote after at least 54 members of the Conservative parliamentary group stripped him of their support. At the end of a grueling day, however, Johnson emerged victorious: Graham Brady, chairman of the powerful 1922 Committee of backbenchers, read out the results of the secret ballot late that evening and declared that 211 of the 359 Conservative party members had backed the prime minister.

Johnson was thus able to rally almost 59 percent of his party colleagues in the lower house behind him, which authorizes him to remain at the top of the party and government. If he had lost the confidence of the parliamentary majority, the party would have had to organize a struggle over the coming weeks to find Johnson’s successor at the party and thus indirectly at the head of government.

But now the prime minister hopes to put an end to the party affair and the media speculation about his future. In a speech to the faction that afternoon, he warned of an internal fratricidal war, appealed to his image as a winner and promised to lead the party to another election victory.

Uncoordinated uprising

Around 160 Tory MPs hold posts in Cabinet or in the extended government and therefore also had a vested interest in keeping Johnson on the sidelines. Against this background, it is a bad omen for Johnson that 148 backbenchers supported the no-confidence vote – a good 40 percent of the entire group. As a result, Johnson received fewer sukkurs than his predecessor Theresa May in a December 2018 no-confidence vote that, despite her victory, heralded the end of her time at Downing Street.

Johnson, however, described his victory in a first reaction on Monday evening as “convincing” and “decisive”, especially since he was able to rally more faction members behind him today than when he rose to party leader in the summer of 2019. His allies launched a large-scale campaign on Monday to to save her boss. They argued that the Prime Minister had shown leadership on major political issues such as Brexit, the Covid vaccination program or the war in Ukraine.

In contrast, the rebels’ actions appeared to be poorly coordinated. Apparently, the letters to Brady did not arrive in a well-organized manner, but rather in dribbles. Finally, it also remained unclear which potential successors could inherit Johnson – which made the action seem like a leap into the unknown. Only former Secretary of State and Health Jeremy Hunt dared to come out on Monday. He was immediately attacked head-on by the culture secretary and Johnson loyalist Nadine Dorries and blamed for failures in pandemic prevention.

Criticism will hardly go silent

Given the large number of rebels, it is unlikely that criticism of the prime minister will now be permanently silenced. A number of MPs have realized in conversations with voters over the past few days that the party affair is sticking with Johnson and has permanently damaged his integrity. The police had fined the prime minister for attending one of the celebrations at his seat of government during a strict corona lockdown.

An administrative investigation report accused him and his entourage of serious misconduct in complying with corona rules, and a parliamentary committee is still investigating whether Johnson lied to the House of Commons in this connection. Johnson’s popularity has suffered greatly. The Tories are still trailing Labor in the polls, putting them at risk of losing their majority in the next general election.

The mood among the rebels was summed up by long-time Johnson confidante Jesse Norman, who withdrew his confidence in the prime minister on Monday. In a devastating letter, he not only castigated the lack of ethical standards, but also formulated substantive criticism.

He accused Johnson of turning away from conservative values ​​in refugee policy or in the planned breach of the Northern Ireland Protocol. He also explained that the Johnson government repeatedly relies on pompous announcements, the implementation of which is not seriously planned, and that it lacks a long-term strategic compass.

According to current party rules, a vote of no confidence against a party or government leader can only be held once in a twelve-month period. But little prevents the Tory backbenchers from changing the rules if necessary. In two important by-elections at the end of June, seats could be lost in favor of Labor in the north of England and the Liberal Democrats in the south. A double fiasco is likely to increase dissatisfaction in the ranks of the Tories and thus the pressure on Johnson.

A look into the past shows that the authority of a prime minister often remains in question even after a rebellion has been averted. Theresa May won a no-confidence vote in December 2018 with a majority of 63 percent of the vote, but only survived until May 2019.

John Major prevailed in a party struggle in 1995, only to lose the 1997 general election. Margaret Thatcher was able to avert a rebellion in 1989 but was forced to resign after a second vote in 1990. British commentators pointed out that Johnson’s no-confidence vote won him a comparatively low percentage of the group.