Boris Johnson weakened after no-confidence vote

Can Boris Johnson use his victory in Monday night’s party no-confidence vote to reassert his authority? Or does the vote, in which 41 percent of all Conservative MPs refused to support him, mark the beginning of his end? Conservative newspapers and commentators on Tuesday were inclined to rate the prime minister’s long-term chances of survival as slim.

A “Hollow Victory”

In Johnson’s personal newspaper, the Daily Telegraph, the front page spoke of a “hollow victory” and editorial by a “seriously wounded” prime minister. Of the “Spectators” said the narrow victory was a bad omen for the party. And the tabloid “Sun” wrote, alluding to the rebels, of a “Night of the Blonde Knives”, during which Johnson “was stabbed in the back by 148 Tories”.

Also known as the Choice Oracle Political scientist John Curtice explained with a view to Johnson’s miserable popularity ratings and historic votes of no confidence against Theresa May, John Major or Margaret Thatcher, the chances of survival are poor. And former party leader William Hague said he personally would have considered resignation a matter of honor if more than 40 percent of the faction had refused to support him.

Heterogeneous rebels

Johnson, however, spoke of a “convincing” victory and said at a cabinet meeting on Tuesday that the vote would put an end to the party affair and allow the government to focus on policy and the concerns of the population. But that is easier said than done. The rising cost of living and interest rates are likely to distress many voters, and wage demands could lead to a wave of strikes in the public sector.

A programmatic speech on economic and housing policy is planned for Thursday. But the rebels don’t come from just one wing of the party, which he could placate with targeted concessions. Tories from the former Labor strongholds of post-industrial northern England expect the state to give citizens a helping hand. Critics from the classically conservative South, on the other hand, are calling for a reduction in the tax burden, which has reached its highest level in 70 years under Johnson.

Is Johnson backing the Brexit card?

On June 23rd Two landmark by-elections to the House of Commons take place. Labor is at risk of losing a seat in Wakefield in northern England, while the Liberal Democrats are contesting the seat of the Tories in the constituency of Tiverton and Honiton in the south. A double defeat is likely to reignite the rebels and put Johnson in trouble as southern and northern Tories demand different strategies to win back voters. Concessions to one wing of the party threaten to anger the other wing.

In Johnson’s overwhelming election victory in December 2019, Brexit held the heterogeneous electoral coalition together. It is therefore conceivable that Johnson will play his tried and tested card and force the conflict with the EU. For example, he could bring the announced law to unilaterally amend the Northern Ireland Protocol into parliament.

But while such a step would please the Brexit hardliners, it would not only meet with resistance from former Remainers. There are also moderate forces among Johnson’s critics who are concerned about the rule of law, the reliability of Great Britain as an international contractual partner or the consequences of a possible trade war with the EU. Does Johnson still have the authority to bring the skeptics into line?

No mandatory successor

In addition to his quality as a political survivor, what speaks for Johnson in favor of him is that it is still unclear who would inherit him. the betting shops give former Secretary of State and Health Jeremy Hunt the best chance. The foreign politician Tom Tugendhat is also relatively popular. The cabinet members, on the other hand, are loyal to Johnson, at least to the outside world. Finance Minister Rishi Sunak’s chances have plummeted after his wife’s tax affair and his fines in the Partygate affair. Secretary of State Liz Truss is popular with the party base and Secretary of Defense Ben Wallace has made a strong case for military support for Ukraine.

Overall, however, no one suggests an alternative to Johnson. Most importantly, no candidate has a convincing alternative program under which the Tories could reunite. A potential successor would not only inherit the office from Johnson, but also a divided party in which one can hardly please all currents at the same time.