Bouygues: well made?







Photo credit © Augusto Da Silva / Bouygues Construction


(Boursier.com) — Bouygues fell back by almost 2% to 31 euros this Friday, despite the broker Barclays which raised its target price from 34.50 to 37 euros, after good results for 2022. The conglomerate generated current operating income from activities of 2.02 billion euros last year, compared to 1.73 billion euros in 2021, for a turnover of 44.32 billion euros, up 18%, in line with their expectations. The margin is thus stable at 4.6%. The management had said that when publishing its previous results it was aiming for a “further increase” in its turnover and its current operating profit…

“Even if the Bouygues group is trading on low multiples (2023 P/E of 9.4x, DY of 6%), we do not consider it to be cheap” comments Barclays, which explains that its valuation derived from the SOTP is based on rather generous multiples and estimates broadly in line with forecasts… “For telecoms, our valuation implies that Bouygues is trading at 27x 2023 EV/OpFCF (peers are trading at 14x), and we value Equans at nearly 16x 2023e EV/EBIT (vs peers closer to 10x) – these multiples reflecting our assumptions of solid growth in the two companies” explains the broker who estimates that Bouygues will have to reach at least the upper part of its forecasts for the action to perform well, “because given the already high multiples, a more offensive investment scenario would require some upgrade of these forecasts”.

In an unstable environment marked by inflation, rising interest rates and currency volatility, Bouygues is targeting sales for 2023 close to those of 2022, and an increase in its ROCA (based on a proforma including Equans for the whole of the 2022 financial year). Bouygues proposes the payment of a dividend of 1.80 euros per share for 2022, stable compared to that of last year…

Citi recently spoke of a “solid” data set, with revenue emerging above market consensus and a margin up from last year. The analyst (‘neutral’) pointed out that the performance of the underlying business had been driven by the Telecoms and Colas segments, and noted that the group’s revenues increased by 18%, including the new contribution from Equans , which is 1.7% higher than its estimates and 4.2% higher than the consensus…


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