Bitcoin (BTC) is alive! In the last seven days of trading, the crypto key currency can gain significantly in value and fight its way back to the upper limit of the range at USD 40,000. Bitcoin dominance is also benefiting significantly and has reached a new high.
Bitcoin (BTC): Recapturing the 32,718 USD makes Bitcoin rise significantly
BTC course: 40,259 USD (previous week: 31,412 USD)
Resistance / goals: $ 40,585, $ 41,321, $ 43,030, $ 44,147, $ 44,878, $ 47,070, $ 48,222, $ 51,307 / $ 50,305, $ 53,005, $ 54,077, $ 55,817, $ 57,998, $ 59,470, $ 61,771, $ 64,896
Supports: $ 39,240, $ 38,537, $ 36,643, $ 34,899, $ 33,335, $ 32,718, $ 31,603, $ 31,010, $ 30,000, $ 29,300, $ 28,716, $ 27,563, $ 26,404, $ 23,887, $ 22,222, $ 21,892, $ 19,884 ,
The price development of Bitcoin has gained noticeably in upward momentum since the 32,718 USD, as expected. As a result, the BTC price rose dynamically above all resistance and was able to recapture the EMA200 (blue) with yesterday’s candle. The cops have thus achieved an important sub-goal. This Wednesday evening, investors are watching the meeting of the US Federal Reserve (FED). If the latter maintains its loose course of increasing money and continues to ignore the inflationary tendencies of the last few months, a further rise in the Bitcoin rate can be expected. The strong resistance at USD 43,030 could be targeted in the next two trading days.
Bullish scenario (Bitcoin price)
Already in the previous week’s analysis of July 21st, well before the failure of Amazon’s plan to integrate Bitcoin as a means of payment, reference was made to a directional decision in the area of 32,718 USD. As a result of the recapture of the cross resistance from EMA20 (red), 61er Fibonacci retracement and trend channel lower edge, Bitcoin marched north and subsequently also broke through the resistance at USD 34,899 and USD 36,643. After a brief setback in the area of the EMA200 (blue), Bitcoin was also able to dynamically overcome this sliding resistance yesterday, Tuesday. In the last hours of trading, Bitcoin reached a new weekly high at USD 40,930, but is currently again just below the psychologically important USD 40,000 mark.
Today is the eighth trading day in a row that the BTC rate can generate a green daily candle. If the price of the crypto reserve currency manages to break through the resistance at USD 41,321 in the coming trading hours, the next important price target will be activated at USD 43,030. The bulls have to prove themselves again at this cross resistance consisting of horizontal resistance and the upper edge of the trend channel. If a breakout succeeds, the pink resistance zone between USD 44,147 and USD 44,878 becomes the target. The MA200 (green) can be found here. Short-term profit-taking should therefore come as no surprise.
The way towards USD 50,000
As long as Bitcoin does not drop back below USD 38,537 afterwards and also surmounts USD 44,878 in the next attempt, a price increase towards USD 47,070 can be expected in the next seven trading days. If the bulls manage to regain the trailing edge of the current corrective movement, a follow-up rise to USD 48,222 is likely. However, this resistance should only slow the upward momentum briefly before Bitcoin should target $ 50,327. If the BTC rate does not bounce off sustainably here either and slides back significantly below USD 47,070, an increase to USD 51,307 is conceivable in the short term. Only when the Bitcoin price can form a daily closing price above 51,307 USD can a break-through into the orange resistance area between 53,005 USD and 54,077 USD be expected.
If the bulls break out of this resistance level, the next target will be activated at USD 55,817. It is important to closely monitor whether the strength of the buyer’s store is sufficient to reach the maximum price target for the coming trading weeks at USD 57,998. If the expected profit-taking does not take place, Bitcoin could even rise to the high of 59,470 USD. Only when the BTC rate has stabilized above this price mark should an increase of at least USD 61,771 be planned. If this resistance is regained as well, the all-time high at USD 64,896 will come into focus again. In the long term, up to the end of the year, price targets in the region of USD 70,000 would also be increasingly likely.
Bearish scenario (Bitcoin price)
The bear camp clearly lost the first showdown this week. However, the bears may not yet be written off. In the last hour of trading, the seller pushed the BTC rate back below USD 40,000. Now the bears have to gather all their strength to avert an outbreak above the green resistance area again. As long as the bears can keep the BTC rate below USD 43,030, a backlash can be expected at any time. A price slide back below the EMA200 (blue) at USD 38,537 per day’s close would be a first important partial success. If Bitcoin subsequently falls back below the support level at USD 36,643, the probability of a correction increases to USD 34,899. If this support is also abandoned, a new directional decision can be expected at USD 33,355. The breakout level of the current price rally can be found here with the supertrend, the lower edge of the trend channel and the 61 Fibonacci retracement.
The road towards USD 20,000
A dynamic break in this area would be fatal from the point of view of the bulls. Further significant price drops of at least USD 31,010 or even USD 30,000 would be likely. Once again, there would be an opportunity for the seller to sell off to the lows at USD 29,300 and USD 28,716. The probability of another ricochet to the north would be assessed as very low. The Bollinger Bands are currently bending up significantly and paving the way for new annual lows. Then the next support level at USD 27,563 comes into focus as the price target. However, this price level should only hold up for a short time. A corrective extension to the 38 Fibonacci retracement at USD 26,404 is more likely.
If there is no countermovement back above USD 30,000, a price slide to USD 23,887 is conceivable. A direct relapse into the support area between USD 22,222 and USD 21,892 should not come as a surprise either. From a technical chart point of view, the ideal would be to start the old all-time high at USD 19,884. The last few days have shown impressively that the cops could mean business increasingly seriously. The bearish scenario would only become more likely below USD 36,643.
Bitcoin dominance: further increase likely
As expected, the Bitcoin dominance initially corrected back into the green support area, but was able to stabilize in the EMA20 (red) and EMA50 (orange) area. The BTC dominance within the trend channel was thus able to assert itself and increase significantly in the last four trading days. The dominance of the crypto reserve currency is currently trying to overcome the resistance at 48.67 percent and continue to rise in the direction of the cross-resistance at 50.01 percent.
BTC Dominance: Bullish Scenario
If the BTC dominance can sustainably overcome the 48.67 percent at the daily closing price, a subsequent increase of up to 50.01 percent must be planned. If, in the coming trading days, it is possible to dynamically overcome the orange resistance area at 50.01 percent, the EMA200 (blue) at 51.80 percent will come into focus. Only when this sliding resistance is broken is a breakthrough to 52.19 percent or even 53.16 percentage points conceivable. Since the MA200 (green) is already running just above at 53.69 percent, a direct jump to the horizontal pink resistance line at 54.23 percent is not to be expected.
Only when the BTC dominance overcomes the 53.69 percent sustained at the daily closing price does the probability of further price increases increase. If it is possible in the medium term to attack and break through the 54.23 percent, an increase of up to 55.30 percent is possible. Only when this resistance level is overcome by the daily closing price is a subsequent increase to the purple resistance range between 57.17 percent and 58.03 percent conceivable. This area was the old level of support in September before the BTC dominance fell significantly in strength. This zone therefore represents the maximum price target for the coming weeks.
BTC Dominance: Bearish Scenario
If, on the other hand, the dominance of Bitcoin does not manage to break through the orange resistance zone and rebound significantly towards the south, a relapse of up to 48.67 percent and below that to 47.03 percent should be planned. The supertrend and the moving average lines EMA20 and EMA50 act as strong supports here. Once again, the BTC dominance is likely to ricochet off towards the north. However, if the area around 47.03 percent does not stop, the cross support of horizontal support and green upward trend line at 45.71 percent comes into focus again. A fall below this price level accelerates the downward momentum again and extends the correction to at least 44.42 percent. If there is no stabilization here either, further charges up to the blue horizontal support line at 43.18 percent are to be expected.
If this support level is also given up, a correction widening to at least 42.27 percent is likely. Even a retest of the monthly low at 41.22 percent would be conceivable. If Bitcoin dominance does not turn back north at this level, a relapse to the 40 percent mark cannot be ruled out in the medium term. Only when the annual low of 39.66 percent is broken through dynamically does the green support zone between 39.21 percent and 37.67 percent come back into focus as the maximum price target for the coming months. A subsequent correction towards the psychologically important 30 percent mark can no longer be ruled out by the end of the year. As long as the BTC dominance stabilizes above 45.71 percent, the bullish scenario is preferable for the coming weeks.
Disclaimer: The price estimates presented on this page do not constitute buy or sell recommendations. They are only an assessment of the analyst.
The chart images were created using TradingView created.
USD / EUR exchange rate at the time of going to press: 0.84 euros.