"Brexit makes you poorer in the long term": Experts anticipate a slump in exports

"Brexit makes you poorer in the long term"
Experts anticipate a slump in exports

At the last minute, the UK and the EU agreed on a trade pact last year. Analysis shows that the economic future of the kingdom would look bleak without him. But the prospects are not rosy with the contract either.

Experts expect significantly fewer exports from Great Britain to the EU in the medium term after Brexit. "Brexit will lead to new trade barriers between Great Britain and the EU, which will lead to a lower volume of trade and thus to a loss of income due to higher prices and less efficient production," writes Thomas Sampson of the London School of Economics in the "Beyond Brexit" report published by think tank "UK in a Changing Europe".

"Brexit is likely to make the UK poorer in the long term than if it had remained a member of the EU," said Sampson. Ten years after Brexit, the forecast predicts that there will be more than a third fewer British exports to EU countries despite the trade pact signed with the EU. After all, the expected exports at this point in time are likely to be more than 10 percent above the volume that had been calculated for a Brexit without a trade pact with the EU – a so-called no-deal Brexit.

Overall, ten years after Brexit, the experts expect around 13 percent less trade volume between Great Britain and the EU than before – but four percent more than in the no-deal scenario. However, such forecasts should be viewed with caution, as much is still unclear, warn the study's authors. Time must show, for example, which sectors will be hit particularly hard by Brexit, how the exit from the EU will affect productivity in the country and how the economy will recover and rebuild after the corona pandemic.

In 2019, shortly before Brexit, 43 percent of British exports went to the EU, while 51 percent of imports to Great Britain came from the EU. The trade pact concluded at the last minute between London and Brussels allows both sides to have duty-free access to each other's markets, but it still brings with it trade hurdles – such as complex border controls and other formalities.

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