Rest for buyers and sellers – Could Bitcoin reach $160,000 by the 2024 halving? This is the scenario envisaged by TechDev. A very optimistic scenario, because for the moment, the price of Bitcoin is struggling to start rising again. Currently stuck around $26,700, buyers and sellers have decided to continue watching price action. Investors are still in profits, could the price continue to fall?
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Bitcoin price drops 0.4% in 24 hours
As the price of Bitcoin tried to rise again, buyers did not seem to not confirm yesterday’s move. In fact, the course 0.4% drop in 24 hours :
In one week, the price shows a down nearly 1%. In one month, Bitcoin 8% drop. The BTC/ETH pair remains stable in 24 hoursbut she 5% drop in a month. Is Ethereum attracting capital?
Is the ratio between profit and loss operators still too high on Bitcoin?
The indicator realized profit/loss ratio (ratio of realized profits and losses) makes it possible to know if the operators make profits or if they lose money. A ratio greater than 1 (green) shows that the operators release profitswhile a ratio less than 1 (red) expresses the fact that the operators are in losses. Here is the graph from the Glassnode site:
THE shopping areas interesting are often identified when the indicator is less than 1. This was notably the case in March 2020, May 2021, January 2022 or more recently in March 2023. Be careful, the on-chain indicator is not magic. Indeed, it was in the red in May 2022 and the price continued to fall before finding a market low around $15,500. It may be interesting to think about take profits when this ratio greatly exceeds 1.
Today the ratio is 1.9. This shows that operators are still in profitbut we are no longer at levels as important as during the top around $30,000 which displayed ratios between 4 and 5. Could the price continue to fall until investors find themselves in losses again? Let’s look at the technical situation in 4H.
Bitcoin price uncertainty in the short term
Bitcoin is moving around the zone at $26,700. This is an important area for buyers to retrieve:
To avoid falling towards the bracket at $25,000buyers must keep pushing to get back to the level of the resistance at $27,500. A fence greater than $27,650 would relaunch the bullish momentum short term. On the other hand, a close below the last low at $25,870 would relaunch the bearish momentum in 4 hours. The RSI is trying to rally higher, a close above 55 would show momentum with bottoms and rising tops.
Despite the fall, the realized profit and loss ratio is at 1.9. A return to equilibrium around 1 is to be considered if the price of Bitcoin is rejected at $26,700. To avoid this scenario, price will need to rally higher and close above the last high marked at $27,650.
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