Out of consideration for pro-Russia tendencies in the country, the government in Sofia has always spoken out against military aid. Parliament is now setting the course again.
The south-eastern European NATO and EU member Bulgaria has an important armaments industry and now wants to supply arms to Ukraine after all. Pictured: Bulgarian Army exercise, May 2022.
Although Bulgaria does not yet have a new government, the parliament in Sofia, which was newly composed after the elections in October, set its first foreign policy accents last week. With a clear majority, the MPs revised a decision made in spring and spoke out in favor of arms deliveries to Ukraine.
The transitional government that is still in office now has one month to work out concrete proposals. This leaves Hungary as the only EU country to categorically reject military aid to Ukraine.
Important production capacities for ammunition
The issue of arms shipments has been a hot topic in Bulgaria since the Russian attack on Ukraine. The south-eastern European NATO and EU member has an important armaments industry. The focus is on the production of ammunition for both Western and Soviet-style weapons.
Despite the modern equipment that the West is increasingly making available to Kyiv, the bulk of the Ukrainian army continues to fight with weapons that meet the standards of the former Warsaw Pact. Obtaining ammunition for this has become increasingly difficult as the war has progressed. This gives special importance to the Bulgarian production capacities.
Sofia was repeatedly asked for military aid. Despite his personal transatlantic convictions, Prime Minister Kiril Petkov, who was in office until August, always rejected these demands out of consideration for the social democratic coalition partner.
After Petkow’s fall, a transitional cabinet took over the official business. This took the position that the question had to be decided by a regularly elected government. But these were excuses. It has always been known that President Radev and the interim government he has installed are opposed to arms sales to Ukraine.
The Social Democrats and the President who is close to them stand for tendencies in Bulgaria that do not want to go on a confrontational course with Moscow due to historical and cultural ties. Together with openly anti-Western, pro-Russian forces, these circles make up about 30 percent of the country.
Government formation is faltering
After the parliamentary decision, the incumbent defense minister, Dimitar Stoyanov, tried to dampen expectations of a dramatic turnaround. The government will draw up an extremely cautious proposal on possible arms deliveries, Stoyanov said. Because Bulgaria cannot relinquish heavy material without endangering its own security.
Ukraine has repeatedly expressed interest in the S-300 anti-aircraft system and Soviet fighter jets in Bulgarian stocks. Parliament has therefore also instructed the government to clarify what replacements could be procured for any weapons that may have to be surrendered.
Meanwhile, the formation of a regular government is not progressing, despite the clear pro-Western majority in parliament. Ironically, the vote on military aid may have been successful precisely because there are no new coalitions yet.
Another point of contention is more important than the geopolitical orientation in Bulgaria: the fight against corruption or the resistance to it. The two strongest voters, the reform party We Continue Change led by Kiril Petkov and the conservative Gerb led by longtime Prime Minister Boyko Borisov, are clearly pro-Western. However, cooperation is practically impossible.
Borisov’s reign is associated with the influence of oligarchic networks on politics and the embezzlement of huge sums of money from the state budget. Petkov rightly says that the far-reaching constitutional reforms that he is aiming for are not possible with Borisov. It cannot be ruled out that a stable government majority will not be found again and that the Bulgarians will be called to the polls again in the spring. It would be the fifth election in three years.
Armament goods also get into Ukraine without a permit
Against this background, last week’s parliamentary decision represents an important step. However, a considerable number of Bulgarian armaments had already reached Ukraine before that, despite the lack of export licenses.
According to the Bulgarian Industry Association arms exports more than doubled in the first half of 2022 compared to the previous year. A large part of this is likely to be due to indirect deliveries to Ukraine.
The online platform Euractiv quotes a manager according to which, for example, exports to Poland and Romania have increased significantly this year. Before the war began, these countries had received hardly any armaments from Bulgaria. From there, the goods are transported on to the Ukraine.
Bulgaria has no re-export ban on armaments. While Switzerland, for example, also attaches certain conditions to the resale of its products, which is the basis of the current dispute with Germany over ammunition for the Gepard anti-aircraft tank, Sofia has no such requirements.