Bulgaria wants to come to terms with Gazprom

According to the Bulgarian interim government, there is no alternative to the situation. A few weeks ago, Energy Minister Rosen Christow said the country would have to start new negotiations with Gazprom in order to get through the winter reasonably unscathed. In the meantime, Sofia has actually sent an inquiry to the group’s headquarters in St. Petersburg, according to her own statements, but has not yet received an answer.

Break with Gazprom in April

In April, Bulgaria was the first European country, along with Poland, to which the Russian gas monopoly stopped supplying gas. The reason was Sofia’s refusal to pay the bills in rubles. For Bulgaria, the delivery stop was a hard blow. In recent years, the south-eastern European country has covered three quarters of its natural gas requirements with imports from Russia. Nevertheless, the then reform government in Sofia was unimpressed by the break with Gazprom.

Instead, the decidedly pro-Western Prime Minister Kiril Petkov of the reform party “We continue the change” intensified the search for alternative sources of reference. He held talks with Azerbaijan about doubling gas supplies from the Caucasus state.

Work on an alternative line to Greece was also pushed ahead, which could, among other things, transport liquid gas from Greek ports to Bulgaria. Sofia ordered a total of seven shiploads of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States. With the record-breaking expulsion of seventy Russian diplomats, Petkov underlined, also on a symbolic level, that although Bulgaria’s traditional proximity to Russia is always exaggerated, it cannot be denied.

Change of course after the fall of the government

But a lot has happened since then. Petkov’s heterogeneous governing coalition, which was held together solely by the desire to prevent Prime Minister Boyko Borisov, who had been Prime Minister for many years and had been plagued by numerous corruption scandals, from returning to power, fell apart in June.

The main issue was Sofia’s position in the dispute with North Macedonia over history and language, which prevented the start of EU accession talks with Skopje. But there were also rumblings in the coalition for other reasons. Not all partners supported the government’s consistent anti-corruption course. The question of how far Bulgaria should support Ukraine in the war against Russia also caused conflict.

Until the elections on October 2, the fourth ballot in two years, business will now be managed by an interim government. And this sets completely different accents than its predecessor, especially in energy policy. This is causing heated debates in the country, especially with a view to the upcoming elections.

Questionable priorities of the interim cabinet

It is less about the sometimes shrill warnings from the government about the supply situation in winter. In fact, the country’s only gas storage facility is currently only 60 percent full, far less than in most other EU countries. The question is also justified as to what means the poorest EU country should or can use to absorb further price increases on the gas market. There is no doubt that Bulgaria finds itself in a difficult energy policy situation.

However, it is also true that since the change of government hardly anything has been done to open up alternative sources of supply. Rather the opposite is the case. The pipeline to Greece, due to open in August, was denied a license at the last minute. Now it should go into operation in October at the earliest. And of the seven LNG carriers ordered from the US, six were canceled because of the high cost of unloading the cargo. Bulgaria does not have its own LNG terminal and is dependent on Greece or Turkey for this.

Stefan Janew, a former interim head of government and confidante of the current cabinet, also showed a remarkable understanding for the Russian side. In negotiations about resuming deliveries from Russia, Bulgaria would have to be prepared to pay severe penalties for breaches of contract, Yanew said a few weeks ago. He did not mention that Gazprom had unilaterally changed the terms of the contract with the new payment modalities, which is unlikely to stand up in an arbitral tribunal.

Geopolitical realignment?

Pro-Western voices fear that the country’s energy policy will result in a geostrategic reorientation. One commentator even spoke of treason. Transitional governments are set up by the president, and most of the cabinet members are his confidants. President Rumen Radev has always been considered relatively pro-Russian, as are the Social Democrats who support him. It was also they who had most vehemently opposed Bulgarian arms deliveries to Ukraine within the governing coalition.

The gas debate and all related issues will shape the remaining weeks of the campaign. However, it is unclear whether there will be any negotiations with Gazprom by then. Observers such as the Bulgarian energy expert Wasko Natchev suspect that the Russian state-owned company will not respond to the Bulgarian offer to talk in order to further increase the pressure to act in the country.

The Russian newspaper “Kommersant” wrote on Wednesday that in view of the increased supply volume for Hungary that was recently agreed, there is no longer any capacity in the Turkstream pipeline to supply Russian gas to Bulgaria.