Started with optimism, in the wake of a post-Covid-19 economic recovery (growth of 6.8% in 2021), the year 2022 ends for the French economy on a much more mixed note. Gross domestic product (GDP) shows a very small increase of 0.1% in the fourth quarter, according to indicators published on Tuesday January 31 by INSEE, which brings French growth to 2.6% overall. of the year – down slightly from Bercy’s expectations, which were counting on 2.7%.
Nevertheless, given the shocks that followed one another throughout the year – the Omicron wave, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the energy crisis and, above all, the rise in inflation – the figures published attest to the “exceptional resilience” of the French economy, welcomed Minister Bruno Le Maire.
On closer inspection, the results are perhaps a little less flamboyant. “This figure of 2.6% is good news, because we could have feared a decline, but the momentum for the year is weak”, underlines Nicolas Carnot, director of studies and economic syntheses at INSEE. In fact, the French economy started the year with a bang, with a growth overhang of 2.3%, achieved in the last months of 2021. The progression of real activity, in 2022, is tenuous. Above all, the display of growth of 2.6% hides a strong disparity between the situation of companies, still healthy despite the crises, and that of households, battered by inflation.
“Companies have been able to continue to produce more than expected”
“Household consumption is once again the weak point”, observes Maxime Darmet, economist at Allianz Trade. Despite the holiday season, conducive to shopping, consumption fell by 0.9% in the fourth quarter. Over the year as a whole, it only increased by 2.7%, half as much as in 2021. With purchases down by 4.6%, households were particularly restricted on shopping in the food – where inflation reached 12% – and on manufactured goods.
And they followed, willingly or unwillingly, the exhortations to energy sobriety. Energy consumption fell by 5.5% in the fourth quarter and by 4% for 2022 as a whole. This, in return, tends to improve foreign trade a little, since it contributes to a reduction in imports.
“While the indicators related to households are rather negative, those related to companies surprise on the risecontinues Stéphane Colliac, economist at BNP Paribas. Industrial production held up better than feared, in any case far from the 10% fall figure announced at the start of winter. Companies were able to continue to produce more than expected. »
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