BVB and RB are fighting for the Club World Cup
Bundesliga is shaking for a place in the Champions League
February 23, 2024, 3:31 p.m
The European bankruptcies may also spoil the mood of the Bundesliga clubs in the long term. It’s about the fifth starting place for the Champions League. And there is still a duel going on within the league: it’s about participation in the Club World Cup.
The squad planners at RB Leipzig, Borussia Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart must have been annoyed: the much coveted fifth place for the Champions League is in danger of being lost to the Bundesliga. The poor results in the first legs of the Champions League from RB Leipzig (0:1 against Real Madrid), FC Bayern (0:1 against Lazio Rome) and BVB (1:1 against PSV Eindhoven) as well as the exit from the Conference League for Eintracht Frankfurt the lead in the complicated coefficient rankings melts away.
Italy 15,571
Germany 14,500
England 13,875
France 13,250
Spain 13,187
Czech Republic 12,750
Belgium 12,400
Turkey 11,000
Portugal 9,833
Netherlands 9,800
As of February 23, 2024
Only the first two countries will get an additional starting place in the coming season and thus access to the almost unlimited pool of money in this Champions League, which will then be played in league mode. The places will be determined in the current season. Germany is still in second place on the list behind Italy and ahead of England and France. The coefficient is calculated by dividing the points won by national representatives in Europe by the total number of participating clubs in a country and this is where the problem begins. Because with the sobering exit of Dino Toppmüller’s Eintracht in the third-tier European Cup, the failure of Union Berlin in the group phase and the important opponent Real Madrid for Leipzig, the number of German clubs will soon be reduced to a maximum of four. And then there are Bayern Munich, BVB and SC Freiburg. They all have their problems.
German teams doomed to win
This means: The focus should not be directed upwards at Italy – there are still seven clubs in the running – but rather at England, which is pushing from below. The Bundesliga has to hope that Arsenal will be eliminated from the Champions League. The team lost 1-0 in the first leg in Porto, and SC Freiburg’s progress in the round of 16 of the Europa League against the 2023 Conference League winners, West Ham United, would be good, but Freiburg lost this duel twice in the group phase . In addition, the early failure of Brighton & Hove Albion and Aston Villa in the Europa and Conference League would be an advantage. It is unlikely that Jürgen Klopp and Liverpool FC will fail early against Slavia Prague. Two English clubs, Manchester United and Newcastle United, have already been eliminated.
So what should the Bundesliga teams deliver at European level now? FC Bayern have to beat Lazio in the second leg and overall in the round of 16 and thus knock out an Italian team. It would also be helpful for Barcelona to advance against Napoli, as Inter Milan could even move into the next round against Atlético Madrid. That would probably rob the Spaniards, who are in fifth place, of their last chances. BVB must not be eliminated in the round of 16 and Freiburg and Leverkusen should still play one or two rounds in the Europa League. With the round of 16 debutant Qarabag Agdam, Leverkusen at least got a feasible draw; they already defeated the Azerbaijanis twice in the group phase. The duel between West Ham and Christian Streich’s Breisgauern also takes on crucial importance when comparing countries.
Who will be at the Club World Cup?
But there is competition for sovereignty in football not only internationally, but also within the league. It’s also about taking part in the 2025 Club World Cup, the FIFA tournament. Chelsea FC, Real Madrid and Manchester City have already qualified for the tournament in the USA in the summer of 2025, a few days after the UEFA Nations League games. With FC Bayern, Paris St. Germain, Inter Milan, FC Porto and Benfica Lisbon, five other clubs have already secured their starting place. Since UEFA will provide a total of twelve of the 32 teams, four European participants remain open.
The tournament will drastically shorten the summer break for the participating teams. It lasts a month and does not end until July 13, 2025. What will happen to players who change clubs on July 1, 2025 is still unclear.
No country may field more than two participants, unless a league has fielded more than two winners in the last four seasons including the current one. But that only applies to the Premier League. There, Arsenal could join Chelsea (winners in 2021) and Manchester City (winners in 2023).
Germany will get a place, but it is unclear who. Two clubs are still arguing about it: Borussia Dortmund and RB Leipzig. After their difficult point at PSV Eindhoven, Dortmund were now able to extend their lead over Leipzig to six points with 68 points. With a win at Real (2 points) and advancement (1 point), the Saxons would get 65 points. This means: RB needs at least a place in the semi-finals in order to challenge BVB for their place. FIFA awards two points for every win, and one point each for a draw and reaching the next round. BVB can therefore carefully look around for accommodation.