By-elections in the USA: glimmer of hope for the Democrats

In the struggle for a majority in the national House of Representatives, which will be re-elected in November, the Democrats sense the dawn. In a by-election on Tuesday in a constituency in the state of New York, Democratic candidate Pat Ryan managed to distance his Republican opponent Marc Molinaro by around 4 percentage points, according to the partial results available.

As a result, 40-year-old Ryan did better than Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election in what political observers have dubbed the “swing district”, where Democrats and Republicans balance each other out. The current president had in the constituency, encompassing the lovely Hudson Valley and the Catskill Mountains, defeated Republican Donald Trump by just under 2 points.

Democrat could win in Alaska

Ryan’s victory continues a trend that began with the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn the country’s right to abortion. Although the incumbent’s party is typically punished by voters in midterm elections, Democratic candidates have done surprisingly well in five by-elections in the past few months. This development is all the more astonishing given that Biden’s approval ratings are still hovering around the 40 percent mark, putting the President in a poor position in historical comparison.

In the state of Minnesota, for example, a Republican candidate won in early August a by-election for a seat in the House of Representatives with 51 percent of the vote — in a district where Trump held a 10 percentage point lead over Biden in November 2020. And in the state of Alaska, Democrat Mary Peltola is even about to win the by-election that became necessary after the death of Republican Don Young, who had been in office for almost 50 years. Peltola currently has a clear lead over former governor and vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin. (Due to the new, two-stage voting system, the final result of this election will not be published until next week.)

Trump voters have lost interest in elections

In the eyes of the renowned election observer David Wasserman, it is “undeniable” that the core Democratic electorate woke up from their lethargy as a result of the Supreme Court verdict. Candidates whose districts are located in agglomerations with many well-educated female voters will benefit from this.

There are also indications that Trump voters have lost some interest in the upcoming midterm elections, Wasserman wrote on Twitter. So far, the FBI raid on the President-elect, which has been dominating the headlines for two weeks, has not led to a massive backlash from the American population.

Wasserman, who works for the independent Cook Political Report, warns against drawing the wrong conclusions from the results of some by-elections. The turnout in such elections is usually very low, and comparisons with a national election are therefore difficult. “This does not mean that the political mood for the Democrats has not improved.” Ultimately, however, only the results on November 8 would show how successful the presidential party’s election campaign was.

In addition, the election for the House of Representatives takes place in newly tailored districts because some states have won seats in the decennial census, while others have lost seats. In this process, the Republicans fared better this time. Wasserman therefore still expects the Republicans to take power in the House of Representatives; the “Cook Political Report” has now corrected its forecast to 10 to 20 seat gains. The Democrats currently have 220 seats and the Republicans 211. Four seats are vacant.