(CercleFinance.com) – The Paris Stock Exchange should begin on a cautious note Wednesday morning a few hours before the publication of the highly anticipated American inflation figures and on the eve of an equally crucial ECB meeting.
Around 8:15 a.m., the ‘future’ contract on the CAC 40 index – September maturity – lost 33.5 points to 7223.5 points, suggesting an opening into negative territory.
However, we will have to wait for the publication, one hour before the opening of Wall Street, of the monthly figures for consumer prices in the United States to see a real trend emerge.
If the consensus anticipates a further drop in underlying inflation from 4.7% to 4.3% year-on-year in August, it also forecasts a recovery in overall inflation to 3.6%, against 3.2% in July, due to the recent rise in oil prices.
According to some economists, the slowness of this disinflation process argues in favor of maintaining the restrictive territory of the monetary policy of the American Federal Reserve, which will meet next week.
For others, on the contrary, the cycle of rate increases is coming to an end, which leads them to warn against any excess of optimism in case these figures should surprise favorably.
Investors are also awaiting the decisions to be announced tomorrow by the ECB, which seems torn between its objective of curbing persistent inflation and the need to revive stalled growth.
Based on the money market, Deutsche Bank strategists estimate that the probability of the ECB announcing a further tightening of 25 basis points tomorrow now stands at 53%, compared to 41% on Monday and 24% last week.
In this context of uncertainty, the Paris Stock Exchange ended yesterday’s session with a decline of 0.3% to 7,252 points, investors playing the card of caution 48 hours before the big meeting with the ECB.
Wall Street also consolidated without intensity, with a decline of 0.6% for the S&P 500, while oil accelerates its surge on the NYMEX, fueling fears of a return of inflationary pressures.
Oil prices remain on the rise this morning, with fears linked to a capping of supply from producing countries, Saudi Arabia and Russia in the lead, outweighing the prospects of a slowdown in the economy.
Brent advanced 0.2% to $92.2 per barrel and American light crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) gained 0.3% to $89.1, a one-year high.
On the bond market, the yield on ten-year Treasuries fell towards 4.26% while the yield on the ten-year German Bund climbed to 2.64%, not far from its annual peaks.
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