Cac 40: Despite Totalenergies at the top of its form, the CAC 40 is moving away from its records

(BFM Bourse) – The Parisian index finally ended this first day of the second quarter in decline, bending under the rise in bond rates. The CAC 40 lost 0.92% towards 8,100 points, despite the rebound of Totalenergies which is benefiting from the rise in oil prices.

Move forward to better move back. This is, in summary, the state of mind which characterized this inaugural session of the second quarter on the Paris Stock Exchange. The CAC 40 lost 0.92% to 8,130.05 points this Tuesday evening.

However, the Parisian market had maintained the excellent dynamics of the first quarter at the start of the session, and even came close, at 8,253.05 points, to its absolute record recorded last Thursday at 8,253.59 points.

Tensions on sovereign rates

But the mood fell like a breeze, investors lost their smile with the new tensions on the bond market. The yield on 10-year US government bonds is reaching 4.36% after rising to 4.40% on Tuesday, the highest in four months. In Europe, the interest rate on the German 10-year debt increased to 2.402%, compared to 2.30% on Thursday, and that of the French State to 2.923%, compared to 2.81% on Thursday.

However, inflation in Germany slowed more than expected, to 2.2% in March, to land at its lowest since June 2021. But the latest statistics published across the Atlantic now maintain the prospect of a postponement of reductions in inflation. Fed key rates.

On Monday, the markets took note of an indicator pointing to the recovery of manufacturing activity in the United States for the month of March. For the first time in sixteen months, the ISM manufacturing activity index returned to growth at 50.3 points compared to 48.1 points in February. The threshold of 50 separates a contraction from an expansion of activity.

At the end of the week, the market also took note of the publication of the PCE index, the preferred gauge of the American Federal Reserve (Fed) on inflation, as well as the intervention of the president of the American central bank, Jerome Powell , who spoke just after the publication of the PCE.

“Underlying PCE inflation (PCE “core”) in annual data came out at 2.8%, in line with the consensus and slightly lower than the previous month… but only thanks to the upward revision of the previous month (2, 9% against 2.8%). Over the last three publications, core PCE inflation has made little progress, contenting itself with evolving between 2.8% and 2.9% over a full quarter. “, underlines Alexandre Baradez, analyst at IG France.

“And this is where we find Jerome Powell: during his speech on Friday, he declared that “to have confidence” in the return of inflation to 2%, which would trigger the first rate cuts, he wanted seeing more progress like those made last year, a way of saying that the figures for recent months are a little less satisfactory,” continues the market analyst.

This week, the big market meeting will also take place on Friday, with the publication of the American employment report for the month of March. A publication that is also decisive for having some clues on the future directions of the Fed in terms of monetary policy.

No push for Totalenergies

On the stock side, Totalenergies gained 3.9% and benefited from the strong growth in oil contracts. The June contract on North Sea Brent rose 1.5% to $88.72 per barrel, while the May contract on WTI listed in New York advanced 1.5% to $84.99.

Excluding CAC 40, Voltalia gained 9.3% after publishing results above expectations in 2023, including a jump in its gross operating income (Ebitda).

On the small and mid-cap side, Actia jumped 12.4% after announcing at the end of last week a technological collaboration with Ampere, the electrical division of the Renault group.

On foreign exchange, the euro gained 0.3% against the dollar to 1.0768 dollars. Risk aversion benefits gold, which is trading at $2,278 per ounce, after a new absolute peak at $2,295.85 per ounce.

Sabrina Sadgui – ©2024 BFM Bourse

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