(BFM Bourse) – The March consumer price index surprised economic forecasters. But after initially stalling, the Parisian index turned things around to end in a very slight decline.
Quite a session for the CAC 40. The Parisian index was clearly rising before the publication of American inflation, then it lost up to 0.9% before finally finding a second wind to finally limit its losses.
At the end of the year, the CAC 40 finished slightly down 0.05% at 8,045.38 points, therefore preserving the 8,000 points.
The market had to accept inflation figures in the United States which were therefore higher than expected by economists. Inflation excluding energy and food prices rose to 3.8% year-on-year in March, compared to a consensus of 3.7%.
Enough to encourage members of the American Federal Reserve (Fed) not to rush to lower key rates.
Moreover, investors are only counting on two rate cuts of 25 basis points (0.25 percentage points) for the current year, with a probability of more than 75%.
>> Access our exclusive graphic analyses, and gain insight into the Trading Portfolio
Kaufman & Broad, solid as stone
“In a word, the publication is discouraging for the Fed and the prospects of a reduction (rates) in June. Inflation appears persistent,” summarizes Bank of America.
As a result of these expectations of lower rate cuts in the United States, bond yields have risen significantly. And the euro fell by 1.05% against the dollar to 1.0743 dollars.
The market will turn its attention to the meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) which will take place on Thursday.
“The path to the ECB’s first rate cut seemed well marked around June. But the bad “surprise” of inflation figures in the United States could require adapted communication from the ECB”, estimates Alexandre Baradez, responsible for market analysis at IG France.
On the value side, Edenred suffered, losing 4.2%, penalized by Jefferies’ initiation of hedging at “underperformance” which is the equivalent of selling to the bank.
The real estate developer Kaufman & Broad gained 6.3% after reporting a 10% increase in its booking volumes in the first quarter, despite a sluggish market.
In other markets, oil is falling a little. The June North Sea Brent contract lost 0.4% to $89.04 per barrel, while the May contract for WTI listed in New York lost 0.4% to $84.86 per barrel.
Julien Marion – ©2024 BFM Bourse