(CercleFinance.com) – The Paris Stock Exchange should open slightly higher on Monday for the first session of a week which promises to be relatively calm, particularly due to the upcoming Armistice and Ascension holidays.
Around 8:15 a.m., the ‘future’ contract on the CAC 40 index – delivery at the end of the month – advanced by 15 points to 7959 points, suggesting a moderate progression in the first exchanges.
The Parisian market had lost 1.6% last week, but the strength of the American markets – which recovered sharply on Friday following employment figures considered reassuring – show that the markets still demonstrate an obvious propensity for bounce.
Some strategists, however, highlight increasingly high valuations and market dynamics (‘momentum’) which are starting to tighten.
After a very positive first quarter, the CAC 40 suffered a slight cold spell in April (-2.7%) and put an end to a positive sequence of five consecutive months of increase.
In the absence of real catalysts, investors could therefore prefer to stay on the sidelines this week and favor the old stock market proverb which recommends ‘Sell in May, then leave’.
‘We re-examined this market adage and found that it is much more than just a cliché,’ emphasize the J. Safra Sarasin teams.
‘Indeed, performances during the summer months have always been weaker, all regions, sectors and periods combined,’ recalls the private bank.
‘We still expect stocks to rise by the end of the year, but it is likely that the coming months will follow the usual seasonal pattern with only moderate growth,’ warns the Basel bank.
Investors only seem to be waiting for one thing in the near future: for the Federal Reserve to finally decide to lower its rates, a prospect which remains surrounded by the greatest uncertainty.
These are not the few secondary indicators expected this week which will allow us to see more clearly on its calendar.
Among the rare indicators on the agenda this week, the consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan will, on Friday, provide a little better insight into the current morale of American households.
In Europe, the services PMI indices – which had some pleasant surprises in their preliminary versions – could turn out to be a little less flattering in the final versions today.
Among the companies that have still not published their quarterly results, the American entertainment giant Disney, the British chipmaker Arm and the oil group bp will announce theirs this week.
Several French companies will also publish their results this week, including Alstom, Arkema and Bouygues.
The Parisian market will be open Wednesday and Thursday for the Armistice of May 8, 1945 and for Ascension Day, but should be relatively inactive during these two public holidays in France.
Volumes are expected to remain limited today with the London Stock Exchange closed for the Early May Bank Holiday.
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