Cac 40: Which CAC 40 groups are growing (and falling) the most since the start of 2024?

(BFM Bourse) – As the third quarter has ended, BFM Bourse takes stock of the securities which are currently experiencing the greatest increases and falls since January 1 within the flagship index of the Bourse. Paris.

Between the political risks linked to the consequences of the dissolution of the National Assembly in France, a generally difficult earnings season, the start of rate cuts by the American Federal Reserve and the recovery measures in China, the third quarter did not It hasn’t been easy on the markets.

The CAC 40 ultimately regained momentum over this period (+2.1%) and is in balance for the whole of 2024 (-0.02% at Friday’s close). This latest development, however, hides significant disparities within the index.

Which values ​​show the strongest progression and, on the contrary, the most pronounced decline? We have finalized the ranking in the infographic below. Our most assiduous readers may have in mind that we usually take the SBF 120. Rest assured, we will provide an update on the broader Paris Stock Exchange index at the end of the year.

Saffron at the top

The first observation remains that the largest declines, in amplitude, exceed those of the increases. Which highlights how certain stocks have been put under pressure by the market.

The CAC 40 was supported by a trio of high-quality stocks, accustomed to outperforming in recent years: Safran, Schneider Electric and Saint Gobain. Moreover, these groups had already signed (respectively) the seventh, fourth, and second highest increases in the index in 2023.

Safran (+30.44%) ignored the difficulties of Boeing and Airbus. This is because the aeronautical equipment manufacturer is not so exposed, on the stock market, to the production schedules of the two aircraft manufacturers (that is to say to the original assembly, which is also done at a negative margin for the new generation of Leap engines) as well as air traffic.

The heart of the company’s stock market reactor remains after-sales services (maintenance, overhauls, sales of spare parts). Even if the group does not communicate on their profitability, these services have a good margin. This activity depends on visits by companies and rental companies to the company’s workshops and therefore on air traffic.

In the first half of 2024, civil engine service activities jumped by 29.9%, including “extremely strong growth of 32% in the second quarter”, noted Bank of America. “Although the company has not revised upwards its forecasts for 2024, the fundamentals remain good,” judges Deutsche Bank, which should “hold” the value for valuation reasons.

STMicro in the tough

Schneider Electric (+29.14%) continues to delight the stock market thanks to its results, themselves driven by the company’s exposure to data centers. The specialist in electrical equipment and energy efficiency technologies was one of the rare groups to raise its outlook during the results season, raising its margin target for 2024. The bank UBS still expects a third quarter “solid” from the company.

Saint-Gobain (+22.47%) completes the podium, the group managing to post a record margin in the first half despite a delicate construction market in several of its regions.

Axa (+16.55%) is fourth. Bank of America expects the insurer to improve its valuation multiples as it unfolds its strategy, noting that the company should return to shareholders the equivalent of a third of its market capitalization at of the next three years.

Essilorluxottica (+15.64%) completes the top five. The specialist in corrective lenses and owner of the Ray-Ban brand delivered satisfactory results but also benefited from the interest of Meta, its partner in connected glasses. The group’s management confirmed that the American company was considering taking a stake in its capital. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has since said the investment would be “symbolic,” according to Reuters.

On the downside, the strongest decline was made by STMicroelectronics (-43.09%) which had to twice lower its outlook for the 2024 financial year. The company is particularly penalized by lower-than-expected demand in the automobile industry. Stifel believes, however, that the bottom of the cycle has been reached and that a recovery should take place in 2025.

Follows Stellantis, with a decline of 42.72%. The car manufacturer has been experiencing disenchantment from the market for several months, while the group resulting from the merger between Peugeot SA and Fiat Chrysler once again posted the best performance in the CAC 40 in 2023 (+59.2%).

The company saw its profitability plummet in the first half and issued a heavy profit warning this week, undermining its margin and industrial cash flow outlook. This is due to its difficulties in the United States, where the group is forced to pass promotions on old models to clear stocks at its dealerships. As well as a more difficult global market. “Time is necessary to reestablish credibility after an alert of such magnitude,” judges Oddo BHF. Several research firms abandoned their purchase advice (or equivalent) on the stock this week.

Kering, for its part, has lost 40.71% since the start of the year, suffering the third largest drop in the CAC 40. The company has been hit hard by the slowdown in demand for luxury products while it is operating a creative transition at his most important brand, Gucci. The group warned that its current operating profit would fall by around 30% in the second half, after a fall of 42% in the first.

Edenred recorded the fourth largest decline (-36.3%), despite solid growth (+18.3% in the first half). The slowdown in the second quarter (growth of 16.3% compared to 20.5% in the first) was harshly punished, and the prepaid service voucher company suffered from fears over the regulation of its activities in France and Italy, Morgan Stanley recently noted. The bank has, however, moved to “overweight” (equivalent to buying in its terminology), judging that the company’s valuation is too low given the growth prospects of its results.

Teleperformance (-26.76%) closes the “top 5” of the biggest declines, despite its last two publications which were very well received by investors. Which demonstrates that concerns about its prospects remain significant as the outsourced customer relations group struggles to demonstrate that its economic model is not doomed by the rise of generative artificial intelligence. Last week the company was penalized on the stock market by the poor results of one of its competitors, the American Concentrix. The fact remains that a very large number of analysts (12 out of 16 according to investing.com) recommend buying the stock given its valuation and its growth, which should accelerate over the coming quarters.

Julien Marion – ©2024 BFM Bourse