(CercleFinance.com) – The Paris Stock Exchange was at equilibrium around 3:30 p.m. despite the publication of the employment report in the United States which exceeded expectations (which weighs down the S&P500 with -0.8%, the Dow Jones with -0.5%).
The CAC had suddenly dropped by -0.5% towards 6.720 before rising, then yielding 0.3% towards 6.735: the weekly balance sheet remains positive by +0.1% and the CAC40 is on track to achieve a 9th week of consecutive increase, which constitutes an absolute record since its creation in January 1988.
The index which flirted with the threshold of 6,800 points yesterday morning shortly after the opening (level no longer tested since February) has only been down 5.5% since the start of the year.
Some are already hoping for a 10th and then an 11th week of increases if ever signs of appeasement appear on the Ukraine side.
Reminder: the Euro-Stoxx50 gained +11% in October then an additional 11% in November, which constitutes an absolute record over these 2 months since it was calculated.
The accommodating statements made on Wednesday by Jerome Powell, the chairman of the American Federal Reserve, reboosted Wall Street, which had nevertheless justified its funicular rally for 8 weeks by this hope of seeing the FED ease off a little in mid-December, which is without doubt. surprise confirmed by Jerome Powell.
The reaction of the markets to the employment figures is negative but not such as to invalidate the most ‘persistent’ -or inexorable- bullish trend in history.
The Labor Department revealed a number of job creations slightly higher than the 262,000 recorded in October: 263,000, that’s almost 100,000 more than expected.
No evidence yet that the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy tightening is starting to pay off in reducing labor market tensions.
The unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7%, some had hoped for an increase of 3.8%.
Hourly wages increased by +0.6%, a figure twice as high as the +0.3% expected: the price/wage spiral does not seem to be stemming for the moment.
The labor shortage continues to penalize many sectors (distribution, catering, etc.) and push wages up.
Unlike previous years, when strong numbers were equated with good news, investors are hoping for disappointing statistics that would deprive the Fed of arguments to raise rates further.
These too ‘robust’ figures will not, however, call into question the scenario of a rate hike limited to 50 basis points after the comments to this effect made this week by Jerome Powell, on the other hand, expectations of +50Pts during of the following meeting (at 5.00%) will be reinforced
‘How far can expectations of a looser monetary policy pull markets higher (October/November rally) and when will degraded economic data push markets to consolidation?’, asks Alexandre Baradez, head of market analysis at IG France.
The bond markets suffered a pullback after the ‘NFP’ in November: the T-Bonds tightened by +9pts towards 3.61%.
Our OATs deteriorated at the margin (+3pts to 2.307%), Bunds by +4pts to 1.8600% and Italian BTPs by +5pts to 3.78%.
The Euro lost almost -0.6% against the $ at 1.0460, oil ‘Brent’ lost -1% to $86.4 on the eve of the OPEC+ meeting.
‘Normally, a consolidation should take shape at this stage,’ he warns.
On the securities side, the concert composed of the French State and EPIC Bpifrance declared to the AMF that it had crossed upwards, on November 28, 2022, the threshold of 90% of the voting rights of EDF. and jointly hold 85.12% of the capital and 90.09% of the voting rights of this company.
Sanofi confirmed this morning that any offer made to Horizon Therapeutics, if made by Sanofi, will be made in cash only. “There is no certainty as to the actual delivery of an offer, nor as to the terms of such an offer, if any,” indicates the group.
Saint-Gobain yesterday finalized the sale announced on September 1, 2022 of its Crystals and Detectors business to a consortium led by SK Capital Partners associated with Edgewater Capital Partners, two American private equity funds specializing in high-tech materials.
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