(CercleFinance.com) – The Paris Stock Exchange (+2.4% to 7,644, absolute record) offers us a scenario that does not even materialize once in 1,000 (once every 5 years… in reality, it ‘is even much rarer): a huge opening ‘gap’, an outperformance of 2% compared to the average of European indices thanks to the rise of a single stock, but not the least, since it acts of LVMH with +14% (probably the sharp increase in history in 24 hours) which erases in a single session all the ground lost since August 31, 2023 (at 780E).
It is also thanks to LVMH that the Euro-Stoxx50 (+1.2%, but 0% without LVMH, Hermès and L’Oréal) is heading towards a new historic double intraday record (4,639) and closing (in the same waters).
LVMH sees its status as the largest capitalization of the CAC40 reinforced spectacularly (i.e. 15.75% of the index, a record): trading in the stock represents nearly 40% of activity on the Parisian market (780MnsE) and 39 others share the remaining 1,100MnsE.
If the results came out ‘better than expected’, the increase in profits was not ‘double digit’ as was the case for many years… but the frenzy of buyers, with orders ‘at all costs’ ‘ seems to testify to a monumental ‘short squeeze’ which leads to massive buybacks under any conditions.
Buybacks of ‘shorts’ are taking place in Pernod Ricard (+8%), Kering (+7.5%) and even +5.8% for Hermès.
Luxury is 150% of the increase in the CAC40 this Friday and over the past week, 100% of the gain in the CAC40 since January 1… all in a single session and with 3 titles ‘weighing’ 26% of the ‘capi’ of the CAC40.
The S&P500 gains +2.6% in 2024 thanks to 3 values, Paris returns to positive with only 1.
Bernard Arnault’s group reported last night that it had achieved sales of 86.2 billion euros in 2023, organic growth of 13% compared to 2022 (+9% as published). LVMH’s net profit, Group share, amounted to 15.2 billion euros, an increase of 8%.
Wall Street (+0.1%) erases its initial losses and here the S&P500 and the Nasdaq Composite are back in contention for a 6th consecutive record… and a 7th remains uncertain for the Nasdaq-100 weighed down by the plunge of -11.2 % of Intel) despite the reassuring publication of the most anticipated figure of the week in the United States: the PCE price inflation index stood at +2.6% at an annual rate in December 2023, a stable rate compared to that of November, according to the Commerce Department.
Excluding food products and energy, two categories that are usually volatile, the index however went from +3.2% to +2.9% from one month to the next, an evolution again in line with that anticipated by the broker
Another very strong figure: household consumption expenditure increased by 0.7% last month compared to November in the United States, for incomes growing by only 0.3% from one month to the next, according to the Department of Commerce.
The increase in consumer spending is therefore slightly higher than that of 0.5% anticipated by Jefferies, while that of American household income is fully in line with the broker’s forecast.
On the Eurozone side, French household confidence improved again in January, according to the INSEE synthetic indicator which gained two points to 91, but thus remains well below its long-term average (100 between January 1987 and December 2023).
On the other hand, the morale of German households has deteriorated severely as February approaches, according to the monthly survey by the GfK institute, further darkening the picture of the German economy at the start of the year.
The consumer sentiment index, calculated on the basis of a survey of 2,000 people, fell to -29.7 points, compared to -25.4 in January.
Brent stabilizes around $82.1 per barrel while the euro gains 0.2% against the greenback, around 1.0865.
In the bond compartment, the 10-year T-Bond (+2Pts) is moving around 4.15% while its German equivalent of the same maturity is also increasing by +2Pts: the Bund is hovering around 2.303%, our OATs are deteriorating of +2.7Pts towards 2.80%… but this has absolutely no impact on the shares with around +14% on LVMH.
In company news, Stef posts a cumulative turnover for the year 2023 of 4.44 billion euros, up 6.8% (+0.7% at constant scope and excluding merchandise sales for out-of-home catering).
Rémy Cointreau (+16% on massive buybacks) announces having achieved a turnover of 956.6 million euros during the first nine months of its 2023-24 financial year, down 26.7% in published data and 22.7% organically (i.e. +16.7% compared to the first nine months of 2019-20).
Finally, in accordance with its end-of-year announcements, Casino announces the completion of the sale of its direct stake of 34.05% in Exito, as part of the takeover bids launched in the United States and Colombia by the Calleja group. .
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