(CercleFinance.com) – Taking advantage of an unexpected improvement in bond prices, the Paris Stock Exchange (6,845 points) manages to escape from the lower range 6,775/6,825 (the CAC remained prisoner from 9 a.m. to 3:50 p.m.) but in volumes less than 1.3 billion euros which do not indicate intense activity.
The CAC40, which now has an advance of +0.45%, would thus manage to start the month of November on a positive note.
The breakout of important medium-term supports on Friday (6,885) does not lead to a domino effect, characterized by the triggering of large automated sales programs.
The Euro-Stoxx50 is back in the green (+0.1%) after testing the psychological level of 4,000 this morning (downturn of -0.5% now filled).
Wall Street remains undecided: almost zero difference on the 3 US indices… the Russell-2000 underperforms with -0.2%.
This start of the stock market month of November (after October closed at its lowest on Friday) took place under the triple sign of rates which continue to rise, the risk of conflagration in the Middle East and the publication of a avalanche of quarterlies this week (if this Monday promises to be calm, the coming days will see the technological giants Microsoft, Meta or Amazon publish their results).
The bond markets reversed course this afternoon: our OATs were up +8.8 points this morning towards 3.598% but returned to the green with -1.5 points at 3.496%…. and US T-Bonds which saw their yield peak around 5.023% (around 11:30 a.m.) now erase -2.5 points to 4.897%.
T-Bonds had deteriorated by more than 30 basis points over the past week, the worst weekly score since April 2022… and the total had been brought to more than 40 Points in 6 sessions this morning.
The Dollar did not really benefit from this last week and it fell further by -0.2% this Monday, with the euro progressing towards 1.0635.
‘I continue to worry about how markets will fare at such high levels, particularly in the United States,’ says Jim Reid, market analyst at Deutsche Bank.
‘We are coming out of a period of 10 to 15 years during which bond yields and interest rates were low, zero, or even negative in developed countries against a backdrop of quantitative easing (QE), the only means that existed to finance the enormity of the global debt burden,’ he underlines.
While a status quo on rates is widely expected from the ECB, market participants will be on the lookout for any indication regarding the trajectory of inflation and the impact of the recent surge in bond yields.
The most important statistic of the week will be the first estimate of third-quarter US GDP, expected Thursday before Wall Street opens.
Economists on average forecast growth of 4% over the period from July to September, driven by strong consumption, after a gain of 2.1% in the second quarter.
The PMI activity indices in Europe should also make investors react tomorrow, as will the Ifo business climate index in Germany, which will fall on Wednesday.
US household income and spending figures, which include the core PCE inflation index closely watched by the Fed, will also be on the agenda at the very end of the week.
In French company news, Teleperformance announces that 98,448,171 shares representing approximately 98.45% of the outstanding share capital of Majorel were tendered as part of the offer, which the group has therefore declared to be unconditional.
TotalEnergies announces that it has joined forces with Corio Generation and Rise Light & Power to jointly develop the Attentive Energy offshore wind project, located off the coasts of New York and New Jersey, in the United States.
Icade publishes a turnover of nearly 1.02 billion euros for the first nine months of its 2023 financial year, up 3.8% (+3.9% at constant scope) compared to the same period. period of the previous year.
Dassault Aviation is one of the only stocks to stand out with an increase of +2% to 187.3E, bringing it closer to its closing record of 188.5E.
Finally, Airbus Defense and Space announces that it has signed two contracts worth a total of 1.2 billion euros for capacity improvement and in-service support for the Army’s A330 MRTT (Multi Role Tanker Transport). French Air and Space.
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