(CercleFinance.com) – The Paris Stock Exchange is now close to balance after the American inflation figures and on the eve of the ECB meeting. The CAC40 index is trading around 8040 points, down 0.10%.
After the delays of the last few days, the second part of the week is busy with several important meetings on the program, in particular the consumer price figures in the United States which were published early in the afternoon.
According to the Department of Labor, the US consumer price index increased 3.5% in March compared to the same month in 2023, an annual rate up 0.3 points compared to February. , and consistent with Jefferies’ expectations.
Excluding energy (+2.1%) and food products (+2.2%), two traditionally volatile categories, the annual inflation rate nevertheless remained at 3.8% last month, again in line with Jefferies’ estimate.
The consensus of economists expected a slowdown in so-called ‘core CPI’ inflation to 3.7% year-on-year in March, compared to 3.8% in February.
The statistic is closely watched by the Federal Reserve and should help it determine when it will begin cutting rates, a prospect that has largely contributed to the rise in equity markets this year.
With this in mind, the strong indicators recently published across the Atlantic were warmly welcomed by investors worried about seeing the central bank postpone the start of its monetary easing.
‘The trend is still upward, but the market is lacking a little enthusiasm,’ admits Christopher Dembik, investment strategy advisor at Pictet AM.
The markets seem less and less to count on a rate cut in June and now favor the scenario of a first reduction in the interest rate in the third quarter, that is to say in July at the earliest.
The American inflation statistics will be followed tomorrow by the ECB’s monetary policy announcements, which should not lead to any concrete decision while again awaiting more clear evidence of the continuation of the disinflation process.
Among the other indicators on the menu for this weekend should be other indicators on inflation in the United States, namely industrial production prices, expected tomorrow, then import prices which will fall on Friday.
Investors will also follow the start of the earnings season for American companies, which will be given as usual on Friday by the major banking groups JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Citigroup.
According to analysts, positive surprises would be able to encourage a recovery in the stock markets, which seem to be lagging somewhat since the end of March after their great start to the year.
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