(CercleFinance.com) – The Paris stock market ended the day’s session with a decline of 0.21%, to 6,964 pts, a good distance from its high of the day (7,032 pts, at +0.7%), l Parisian index having reversed the steam at the end of the morning.
For its part, the Euro-Stoxx50 yielded only -0.11% while the US indices yielded from -0.6 to -1%, against a backdrop of uncertainty about the situation in Ukraine. Indeed, the White House expressed doubts as to the reality of the withdrawal of Russian troops stationed on the Ukrainian border.
Another factor of prudence: the content of the ‘minutes’ of the FED expected at 8 p.m.: a more ‘hawkish’ tone and more aggressive measures against inflation are envisaged.
In terms of figures, this day was particularly dense: retail sales rebounded by 3.8% in the United States last month, after a fall of 2.5% in December 2021 (revised from an initial estimate which was – 1.9%).
The Commerce Department said that excluding the automotive sector (vehicles and equipment), US retail sales rose 3.3% in January (after contracting 2.8% the previous month).
US industrial production rebounded 1.4% last month, according to the Federal Reserve, growth significantly higher than economists expected on average (+0.5% after a 0.1% dip in December 2021) … but there is a ‘bias’: a jump of 9.9% in the production of ‘utilities’, the demand for heating having increased sharply in January due to temperatures that were much colder than usual this year.
The Fed points out that production is 2.1% higher than its pre-pandemic level (February 2020).
The industrial capacity utilization rate improved by one point to 77.6%, a level however 1.9 points below its long-term average.
Import prices recorded an increase of 2% in January 2022, after a decline of 0.4% (revised figure) the previous month. They climbed by +10.8% over 12 months according to the Labor Department.
Excluding oil (+9.8%), import prices rose by 1.4% in January.
For their part, export prices rose 2.9% in January, after falling 1.6% in December, an annualized increase of 15.1%.
Numbers also in Europe: CVS industrial production increased by 1.2% in the euro zone and by 0.7% in the EU in sequential rhythm, according to Eurostat estimates, after increases of respectively 2.4 % and 2.6% in November.
Compared to December 2020, industrial production increased by 1.6% in the euro area and by 2.5% in the EU. The annual average of industrial production for the year 2021, compared to 2020, increased by 7.8% in the euro zone and by 8.2% in the EU.
All these statistics should not fail to fuel the debate on the Federal Reserve’s rate hike (in fact, the question also concerns the ‘timing’ of the reduction of the ‘balance sheet’ of the FED, which will not be immediate) .
The yield on ten-year US Treasury bonds increased by 5pts, beyond the psychological threshold of 2% (from 1.996 to 2.046%).
In Europe, the atmosphere is quite different with a marked upturn in OATs which wipe out 4pts of yield to 0.747% and in Bunds (-4pts to 0.2700%).
This morning, investors were also able to take note of the level of British inflation: consumer prices in the United Kingdom rose by 5.5% year on year last month, after inflation which had stood at 5.4 % in December, according to figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
The British ‘Gilts’ nevertheless eased by -6 basis points to 1.526%.
In the news of French companies, Air Liquide (+2.7%) publishes for 2021 a net recurring income (RNR) up 9.9% (+13.3% at constant exchange rates) to 2.57 billion euros, and an operating margin of 17.8%, up 70 basis points excluding the energy effect.
Nexans (+6.4%) publishes for 2021 a net income group share of 164 million euros, compared to 80 million the previous year, and an EBITDA of 463 million, i.e. a margin of 7.6 %, up 157 basis points from 2020.
Finally, la Française des Jeux (+3%) announces that it is raising its 2025 objectives, now aiming for an average annual growth in turnover of between +4 and +5% for 2021-25, an EBITDA margin rate of more than 25% and a distribution rate of net income between 80 and 90% from 2022 (stakes increased by +11% in 2021 to 19 billion euros).
Cap Gemini remains at the bottom with -2%.
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