CAC40: desire for geopolitical appeasement but nervous market


(CercleFinance.com) – The markets are breathing easier: the Israeli bombing of military objectives in Iran last night caused a lot of stress (Tokyo lost up to -4%, the VIX soared above 21, the barrel of oil climbed to around $90.75 on Brent).

But the ‘immediate and massive response’ promised by Tehran has not taken place, the media are trying to minimize the matter (and including Iranian officials who speak of a cyber-attack), China and the United States are calling for calm. (which is very different from expressing a ‘condemnation’ of one or the other protagonist) and everything seems to unfold like last Sunday where the 2 camps (Iran or Israel/United States) try to minimize the incident, the Western media being more than discreet about this ‘incident’ (which constitutes a real ‘casus belli’).

The Paris Stock Exchange which had started the session down -1% this Friday morning (CAC40 below 7,950) returned to the green (+0.1% towards 8.30Pts), so that the week ended with a zero and blank score.
Note that 100% of the increase in the CAC40 this Friday is attributable to the +4.8% increase in L’Oréal.

There was indeed reason to opt for the ‘risk-off’ in the face of the multiplication of geopolitical tensions and the rise in American rates… but the ‘VIX’ fell from 21 to 18.80, ‘Brent’ oil falls below $87.5, the Dollar – a traditional refuge in the event of geopolitical tensions – crumbles by -0.25% towards 1.0670 against the Euro… and Wall Street simply seems a little undecided (against -0 .8% in pre-opening this morning).

The US indices are moving in a dispersed order with the S&P500 at -0.2% at 5,000 ‘all round’ (6th consecutive session of decline and -3.5% this week), the Nasdaq losing -0.8% (i.e. -4 .3% this week, the worst since last October) but the Dow Jones is progressing symmetrically by around +0.45% towards 37,950.

The serenity which seems to have returned in a few hours results in renewed tension on the side of the American bond market (which no longer acts as a refuge this afternoon): the yield on American Treasury bonds, which had fallen slightly this morning, are starting to rise again with a ten-year which rises to 4.63%, its highest level since November, the ‘2-year’ continues to flirt with 5.00% (at 4.9700%).

On the European side, our OATs (+1.5Pts) ended the week at their worst level since the end of November at 3.0180%, the same for German Bunds with +1.5Pts to 2.5050, Italian BTPs taking +4Pts to 3, 9060 (i.e. +18Pts over the week).

Yesterday evening, Netflix revealed quarterly results in line with expectations, but the stock fell 5% in pre-stock market quotations after the announcement that it would no longer publish new subscriber figures in its quarterly accounts from 2025.

In Paris, the Sodexo services group publishes for its first half of the year (ended at the end of February) adjusted net income from continuing activities up 46.3% to 496 million euros, and an improving operating margin. by 40 basis points to 5.1%.
Its main competitor Edenred is down -11.5% towards 41.4E, a major support.

On the occasion of its half-yearly publication, Pluxee (+5%) indicates that it is raising its annual objectives to aim for organic growth in turnover between 15 and 17%, as well as a recurring EBITDA margin of at least 35%. at constant rates. The company – resulting from a recent split from Sodexo – recorded net income down 25.6% to 68 million euros for its first half of the year.

While reiterating its ‘neutral’ position on L’Oréal (+4.8%), UBS raises its price target from 460 to 467 euros, a new target which contains a 10% upside potential for the number’s shares. a global cosmetics company. The group announced yesterday evening a turnover of 11.24 billion euros over the first three months, up +8.3% as published.

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